What the new leader means for Taiwan and the world

Taipei – Taiwan’s next president has further promised the same. The question is what that means for relations not only with Taiwan but also with China, the United States and other countries with a stake in the 23-million-person island, which supplies much of the advanced semiconductors that power the world. .

Lai Ching-de, the winner of Saturday’s presidential election, promised to continue the policies of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, who built up the military and strengthened ties with the United States and other sympathetic countries. He also pledged to do more to address domestic issues such as affordable housing and economic inequality.

The new government will need to manage relations with China, which will become Taiwan’s ruler across the Taiwan Strait. With the United States. Congress is divided as it grapples with the country’s economic and other challenges.

cross-strait relations

The candidate, who China had demonized during the election by calling Lai a “destroyer of peace,” won. So what is China doing now?

Analysts expect some expression of dissatisfaction, but say the strongest signs may not emerge until May, when Mr. Lai takes office. That could be military exercises around the island, restrictions on imports from Taiwan, or both.

China has done both in the past, particularly with large-scale drills following then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island in 2022. It sends fighter jets and warships into the skies and waters around Taiwan almost daily, constantly reminding the government of the threat of invasion if it refuses to become part of China.

China’s stated priority is what it calls “peaceful reunification.” That outcome is increasingly possible as Taiwanese reject the idea of ​​becoming part of China, especially in the wake of the restrictions on democracy and freedoms imposed by China in the wake of mass protests in Hong Kong. It seems to be of low quality.

A former U.S. official said China’s urge to punish Taiwan would be tempered by two considerations.

Danny Russell, who served as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in the Obama administration, said in a commentary: “One is that the Chinese government wants to restrain President-elect Lai, not provoke him.”

“Another factor is Beijing’s reluctance to provoke the U.S. government as the U.S. enters a tumultuous campaign season,” said Russell, who is currently deputy director of the Asia Social Policy Institute. “It’s about being,” he said. “Xi Jinping has made significant efforts and credibility to reduce tensions with the West in an American election year to lower China’s profile and to buy space to deal with its myriad problems at home. I have invested.”

US relations and diplomacy

US President Joe Biden sent an unofficial delegation of former senior officials to Taiwan for direct talks with the incoming administration, signaling continued support.

Analysts say Mr. Yori’s Democratic Progressive Party (DP) has been cooperating with Washington for eight consecutive years, building on the existing friendship and deepening ties in areas such as trade, investment and the military. Expect.

“Staff on both sides know each other and are familiar faces,” said Wenti Song, a fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Atlantic Council. “If the Democratic Progressive Party continues for a third term, it means that the strengthening of U.S.-Taiwan relations that we have seen over the past eight years is likely to continue rapidly under the next Rai Kiyonori administration.”

Although the United States has no formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, Taiwan is a major source of military equipment and cooperation for Taiwan. US law requires Washington to treat all threats to the island as a matter of “grave concern.”

Despite Beijing’s efforts to isolate Taiwan, Mr. Li is likely to continue seeking unofficial diplomatic relations with partners around the world.

During Tsai’s eight years in office, Taiwan lost 10 formal diplomatic allies to Chinese influence, which some refer to as “checkbook diplomacy.” In the latest sign of Chinese pressure and influence in the Pacific island region, Nauru announced on Monday that it would switch diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China. This follows the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, where both countries switched sides in 2019.

China and Taiwan have been embroiled in a dispute over diplomatic recognition since splitting during a civil war in 1949, with Beijing spending billions of dollars and using firepower to win recognition for its “One China” policy. It is being strengthened.

During his election campaign, Lai called for reducing dependence on China and diversifying trade with other countries. Analysts predict that Taiwan will likely focus on building closer ties with countries such as the United States, Europe, Japan and Australia.

domestic politics

In Saturday’s election, the Democratic Progressive Party lost its majority in Taiwan’s parliament, known as the Legislative Yuan, to the opposition Kuomintang Party by one seat. Although the Democratic Progressive Party won 51 seats, it fell short of the overwhelming support of more than 60 seats it received in the 2020 election, giving it a comfortable majority in the 113-seat parliament.

Neither party has a majority, and the Taiwan People’s Party, a relatively new force that won eight of the 113 seats, could cast a swing vote during deliberations on the bill.

“There’s going to be more and higher transaction costs in terms of building agreements to get a lot of bills passed with opposition parties,” Song told the Atlantic Council. “This could create potential challenges regarding governance efficiency going forward.”

The incoming administration faces a number of domestic challenges, including the economic slowdown since the pandemic and long-term challenges such as inequality, housing affordability and unemployment. Among the urgent issues Lai mentioned in his victory speech were the financial sustainability of Taiwan’s labor insurance and health insurance, and energy transition.

The two major parties have different approaches to promoting economic growth, with the Kuomintang favoring closer economic ties with China. At a press conference after the election, Mr. Lai acknowledged that his party had lost control of parliament and promised to build a consensus.

“The election showed that the people expect effective government and strong checks and balances,” he said.

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Associated Press reporter Ken Moritsugu in Beijing contributed.