Opinion | The world is on track to meet the 1.5 degree climate change goal

Last week, European climate watchdog Copernicus reported that the average global temperature last year reached 14.98 degrees Celsius, 1.48 degrees Celsius above the average temperature in the second half of the 19th century. Two US agencies, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, have followed suit, estimating temperature increases of 1.4°C and 1.35°C, respectively, since then. The World Meteorological Organization’s overall result was 1.45 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, with an uncertainty range of plus or minus 0.12 degrees.

Some may see this number as a sign of doom. But it should not change people’s understanding of the issue at hand. Rather, they should be heeded as a warning. If civilization wants to limit the damage caused by climate change, it must actively commit to more measures.

The data shows that countries gathered at the United Nations Climate Change Summit in Paris believe that efforts to keep warming to the 1.5 degree Celsius goal are critical to preventing severe droughts, heavy rains, heat waves and other climate impacts. This highlights how hopeful the idea was in 2015 when it was agreed that it was necessary. .

It also means that another, more important promise from Paris – to ensure that the rise in global average temperatures is kept below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – could also be undone by reality. It should also serve as a sign.

Copernicus researchers noted that warming exceeded the 1.5 degree target for almost half of last year. In December, the temperature was 1.78 degrees above the pre-industrial revolution average. This is the first time in history that global temperatures exceeded the upper limit of 2 degrees Celsius for two days in November.

Changes in ocean temperatures caused by El Niño contributed to the record numbers, and this trend is likely to continue, reaching its peak this year. Additionally, greenhouse gas emissions have rebounded sharply from the decline caused by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The 1.5 degrees target depended on global emissions being 45 percent lower in 2030 than in 2010. Emissions are expected to decline in 2030 if countries stick to their previous plans. Instead, it will be 9% larger.

However, evidence that global efforts are not meeting global ambitions does not change the nature of the challenge. Even if the world is indeed moving towards some catastrophic scenario, removing one tonne of carbon dioxide from the global energy matrix and one tonne of methane and nitrous oxide from the livestock and agricultural industries It is true that it helps with energy restriction. Climate change and its associated damage.

If anything, the evidence of global warming so far should prompt world leaders to consider all the tools at their disposal. Develop all technologies to reduce emissions. Consider all options for removing greenhouse gases from the environment. Even the careful study of available technologies to directly lower the Earth’s temperature is an approach collectively known as “geoengineering.”

Too many technologies and mechanisms are left by the wayside. Nuclear energy continues to be attacked by some environmental activists who bring up misleading images of an impossible nuclear apocalypse. Technologies that capture carbon from the air and oceans are rejected as enabling the continued use of fossil fuels, undermining the world’s urgency to end a carbon-based economy.

Carbon markets and taxes have been resisted by everyone from the Pope to activists who want to use the fight against climate change to end capitalism. Solar radiation management, which reflects heat-carrying rays directly into space, has been rejected on the grounds that it could have worse effects than climate change itself.

Fortunately, the evidence that the target was blown up appears to be creating some sense of alarm among world leaders. Last year, the Biden administration produced a Congressional-mandated report outlining options for radiation control research to block sunlight from reaching Earth, and this is one unconventional idea worth at least considering. .

Germany shut down its last nuclear reactor last year. But California energy regulators have defied the opposition of environmentalists by delaying the closure of the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant until 2030. The Washington government also gave incentives to keep existing reactors open and to invest in new reactor technology.

In retrospect, it may seem foolish to pin the fight against climate change on impossible numbers. Jumping beyond the much-vaunted global warming ceiling could deter countries from investing in costly energy transitions that already appear to have failed. Still, if failure leads to the world doubling its climate goals, it may provide the necessary incentive to take the challenge seriously.