[ad_1]
What does 2024 mean for the luxury watch business?
In a video call last month organized by the Times, two well-known resellers offered some of their best guesses. Silas Walton is the founder and CEO of A Collected Man (ACM), a London company specializing in rare works by independent authors. Manufacturer Austin Chew and founder and CEO of Listcheck, a Hong Kong-based consignment platform focused on popular steel sports models.
Walton and Chu first met in person in August while attending a series of watch events in Geneva, but both said they had admired each other from afar for years. “We basically spent the whole time chatting during the meeting,” Chu said from his office in Hong Kong’s Central district.
A Collected Man and Wristcheck both sell used watches, but the companies target different market segments, resulting in contrasting sales volumes. “There’s a certain amount of asymmetry between Austin and I,” said Walton, who joined the call from his home in central London. “In a week he might list four or five watches,” he estimates, but Wristcheck says he probably lists four or five watches in an hour. It’s possible. (Mr. Chu said it happens about 3 to 5 times a day.)
But both men lamented what Walton called the “frothing waters” that have disrupted the used watch business since the coronavirus pandemic began.
“I know a lot of people who went bankrupt in the secondary sector because they bought too much in the last two years,” Chu said.
They expressed relief as the year ahead seemed to promise more stability.
“If you look at the buying and selling side of things, you see that people are much more rational,” Walton said. “And there’s less speculation, which is great, because speculation is never beneficial and just pushes things into an irrational frenzy.”
Their conversation has been edited and condensed.
What do you think about the watch market in 2024, both new and used?
Silas Walton I feel like the secondary market is in a much healthier place than it was 12 months ago. The situation has largely stabilized or is starting to correct upward. And even some of the biggest gains in the secondary market, such as independent stocks, have recently corrected their prices in some areas and are feeling fairly healthy.
On the primary side, from observation and anecdote, there appears to be a lag where the primary market experiences a lag behind what happens in the secondary market. And they are currently experiencing some of the cycles that we are already experiencing. I think there will still be some adjustments to be made in the primaries over the next six to 12 months. Austin, what about you?
austin chu I pretty much agree with what you said.Since this time last year [December 2022] Until August, the situation was quite difficult for the secondary market. Currently, the popular model is 10-15% higher than the price it was listed for in August or September. This seems very promising in terms of stability.
What’s interesting is that the shift in sentiment is very clear in terms of what people want to buy. Last year, we basically only sold Rolex, Audemars Piguet (AP), and Patek Philippe. And among those brands, the featured models were the Submariner, Daytona, Royal Oaks, Nautilus, Aquanauts, as well as Richard’s Mills and his popular FP Jahns. That was it.
But now it’s very diverse. Some of our customers don’t buy Cartier or Omega or even popular vintage items, they buy brand new items that are 30% cheaper than the retail price. And that also applies to young collectors. 70% of our customers are under 35 years old.
This time last year, it was just tunnel vision, where there were only three big brands. I think they’re buying a lot more now from a passion standpoint. In the past, the emphasis was on value preservation and investment was prioritized. So I think the priorities have changed a little bit. And it wiped out many speculators.
walton The reality is that watches, as an interest class rather than an asset class, are getting more and more expensive. And I think that’s likely to continue exponentially. I can’t help but smile when I see a 30-year-old Cartier on my wrist. There’s still a lot to explore.
A lot of our clients at the top of the indie market are people who are really new to the indie market. But they don’t come in because they want to flip the clock and make money. In some cases, you may even be paying real premiums. They are starting to apply logic that they previously only applied to the art market and other collectibles markets. They are comfortable with the idea that a liquid market exists, even if it is unregulated.
Chew And I have Apple Watch to thank for a lot of that. Millions of wrists around the world are accustomed to wearing watches. Once a habit is formed, it is very difficult to get rid of it.
walton I remember back in 2014 when we were about to launch Watch Xchange, the predecessor to ACM. I was sitting with a banker and the Apple Watch had just been announced. And they said: “Don’t you think the Apple Watch will lobotomize the watch market?” And I just read somewhere about the idea that every Apple Watch will end up being a watch on someone’s wrist. So in the end, you end up creating real estate that didn’t exist before. Therefore, this is likely to be very beneficial in terms of bringing in new generations. And I mentioned that to my banker, and there was some skepticism. But I think it’s ultimately very true.
What do you think will be the dominant aesthetic trends this year?
Chew I think it follows that there is no dominant aesthetic. And I think it’s very different than what we’re used to. For the past few years, ultra-luxury independent watches or luxury sports watches have been the mainstream. But in the future, people are buying more products to pursue their passions, and they are buying more of what works for them. Previously, you could predict what your client would want next. Now, it’s much more difficult.
However, I think the overall trend is towards smaller watches. I think there are far fewer people in Asia who are looking for he 44mm or even he 42mm. It doesn’t move anymore. 36 to 41 is the sweet spot.
walton You’re absolutely right about the trend toward smaller case sizes. Another thing I’ve observed lately with indies is that brands are coming out with more traditional things. As a result, I think we’re now moving to a place where younger brands are looking to the recent past and understanding that more classic interpretations of things have been successful.
Look at the huge success of the Akrivia line, then Rexhep Rexhepi’s Chronomètre Contemporain line, and of course the CC line that brought Rexhep. And they look at other independent watchmakers who have had similar success over the last few years and say to themselves, “Oh, there’s safety in a very traditional kind of aesthetic.” Sho. So I think over the next 12 months or so we’re going to see some pretty traditional watchmaking coming out of the indie space.
Which styles, brands and models do you foresee coming back?
walton Urban Jurgensen. This brand has an incredible story and a long history, passing through generations of owners, experiencing ups and downs, but ultimately never achieving the success it deserved. At one point, Derek Pratt – a watchmaker who in my eyes was almost on a par with contemporaries like George Daniels and FP Journe, but who, having passed away, never got the recognition he deserved – was deeply involved. Jurgensen. And then obviously the ownership changed. And now we know that Kari Voutilainen is back in the front seat and working with a number of important collectors to revive the brand.
Of all the brands that have real potential because of the fundamentals of aesthetics, the fundamentals of history, and the people behind it, I think it’s a brand to watch.
Austin, are there any brands, models, or manufacturers that are planning to make a comeback?
Chew To be honest, I think the major brands next year, at least for us, will still be AP, Patek and Rolex. But I think for our customers, they’re going to start paying more attention to vintage items that are out of print. Two years ago, they wanted only the latest and hottest.
The other category is generally just independents. It’s not about any particular brand, it’s about all independent brands, at least either A.) brands that have contributed to the watch world in the past or are still contributing to the watch world, or B.) brands that actually exist. is.
Because over the past two years, there have been a lot of brands that have come out of nowhere without the right DNA. So I actually think next year is going to be very tough for these brands. But a good indie will beat that. I don’t want to talk too much about group brands because I think it’s even darker when talking about modern watches.
walton Austin, what are you most looking forward to next year?
Chew I’m most looking forward to lower interest rates. Because it really helps the watch market and any market in general.
walton It’s obviously something we can’t predict and it has a big impact. The risk of war in Europe and the Middle East is increasing rather than receding, and this is clearly potentially very frightening and destabilizing. But I genuinely feel more optimistic than I’ve probably ever felt before.
[ad_2]
Source link
