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A selection of key international stories to watch in 2024.
“The Year of Voldemort. The Terrible Year. The Year That Must Not Be Named.”
That’s how the year 2024 is described in terms of the global crisis occurring all over the world..
No one knows if 2024 will be as bad as the nemesis in the Harry Potter novels, or if it will become the Latin word for “terrible year.” What is clear is that what seemed certain a year ago is likely to be thrown out by new risks, new records, and unexpected events that upend the world as we know it. is. War will roar. Will geopolitical change accelerate or stagnate?
So it was 2023, so it’s probably going to be 2024. more be.
International news to watch in 2023: The battle between Ukraine and Russia.climate change
“Three wars will dominate world affairs,” wrote analysts at the Eurasia Group think tank, which identifies 2024 as the Voldemort era in its annual forecast for world affairs..
“Russia vs. Ukraine is in its third year, Israel vs. Hamas is in its third month, and America vs. Homeland is ready to start anytime.”
Here are some international stories, themes and wildcards to watch in 2024.
Taiwan, Russia, Ukraine – the US is not alone in facing important elections
A rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in 2024 is almost certain, and the world is paying attention. But with more than half of the world living in countries where national elections are scheduled, there are other high-profile elections that could have far-reaching implications. Social and economic stability around the world. It could also test the meaning of democracy’s two favorite concepts: freedom and justice.
Iowa caucus replay: Donald Trump defeats Republican rival in key election race
Just weeks into the new year, Taiwanese voters ignored Beijing’s warnings that the re-election of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party would increase the risk of conflict with China, which has vowed to eventually unify Taiwan and the mainland. It seemed like it was. China. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has held power as either president or prime minister since 1999, is expected to be sworn in for a fifth term in March. Ukraine’s wartime leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, may also be up for re-election in the same month.
The world’s most populous country will decide in April and May whether to renew Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aggressive brand of Hindu nationalism.Mexico’s June elections will be large and complex, According to Earl Anthony Wayne, a former U.S. diplomat and current professor at American University, the country has more influence on Americans’ daily lives than any other country in the form of trade, illegal drugs, and immigration flows. The country is said to be involved. In what is believed to be the world’s first initiative, both of the leading candidates are women.
A divided and divided Ukraine over Ukraine?
As the second anniversary of Russia’s war with Ukraine approaches at the end of February, there is a de facto stalemate across Ukraine’s eastern front with Russia. According to Tim Willacy, a former British diplomat and current professor at King’s College London, the prospects for this war in 2024 are already becoming clearer: “For Ukraine, the war will return to being primarily defensive. . This is a good thing. It is much easier to defend than to attack, and Russia will lose thousands of troops trying to secure the position.”
Still, even if the battle has so far turned in Russia’s favor, the storm clouds are darkening for Ukraine. Americans are increasingly divided about the war, with an ongoing stalemate between the Biden administration and Republican lawmakers over whether to send billions of dollars in additional military aid to Ukraine. If Trump wins the November election, that aid could dry up completely. In Europe, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the majority of European Union countries were not providing Ukraine with enough weapons. Even Poland, Ukraine’s neighbor and strong supporter, cut back some arms transfers to Kiev as the war dragged on.
“It’s tough, but they’re doing their best.” On the ground in Ukraine, the war depends on US weapons
Some analysts believe that Russia will maintain control of the roughly 18% of Ukrainian territory it currently occupies in Crimea and the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
“The conventional wisdom is that Ukraine is in for an even tougher year than 2023, despite the highly publicized counterattack,” said Daniel DePetris, a foreign policy researcher at Washington, D.C.-based Defense Priorities. The results were poor.” A think tank that advocates for a smaller global role for the U.S. military.
“Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right. Kiev can no longer be assured of long-term and extensive military support from the West. This is undoubtedly frustrating for President Zelenskiy, but it is also an unavoidable reality for him.”
AI: It’s artificial. That’s smart.Potential for abuse by hostile nations
Proponents of AI are using big technology to reduce human error, automate repetitive tasks and processes, foster growth, make us all more productive, and help us focus on what really matters. It states that the data can be processed easily. However, 30% of the 1,400 experts surveyed by the World Economic Forum for its 2024 Annual Risk Report said that disinformation from hostile states and other bad actors could cause riots, strikes, and government and a crackdown on dissenting voices who believe that AI is likely to be used to spread misinformation.
Companies, regulators, and AI technology companies themselves appear to be aware of the risks. The White House has asked America’s top tech companies to sign a voluntary measure aimed at making AI “safe, secure, and trustworthy.” The European Union has taken a more precautionary approach, enacting legislation mandating various forms of regulation, including that AI systems eventually be monitored by humans. Late last year, the UK hosted an international summit aimed at strengthening protection from the most serious risks of AI, such as biological weapons.
But many fear that once AI takes hold in 2024 (and beyond), a combination of inertia, speed, and predatory politics will create a situation that polarizes communities, societies, and countries. There is. “It’s coming. Don’t close your eyes or put your head in the sand,” International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said, speaking at the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “Don’t do it. AI needs preparation.” January.
Middle East in turmoil
September 30, 2023 – Eight days before Hamas attacks Israel and Israel launches a retaliatory military operation in Gaza – President Joe Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said: “The Middle East is quieter today than it has been for the past 20 years.” Sullivan was proven shockingly wrong about that.
More than three months on, the war has turned the region into a powder keg that could involve Hamas’ Iranian-backed allies in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Yemen (Houthi rebels). Both sides seek to show solidarity with the Palestinians in different ways, attacking Israeli interests either in northern Israel or in the Red Sea.
100 days of Israel-Hamar war: Inside the devastating impact of the war between Israel and Hamas around the world
A missile fired by the Houthis at shipping traffic in the Red Sea also nearly hit a U.S. and British naval vessel deployed to the region to thwart such attacks. As Israel’s war in Gaza continues, the risk of escalation, with the United States and its allies drawn more directly into the conflict, remains high, Eurasia Group said.
The Eurasia Group said that in 2024, an Israel-Hamas war would “widen existing global divisions”, further infuriate Muslims around the world due to the high civilian death toll in the Gaza Strip, and lead to a decisive move against Israel. He said the support would deepen the isolation of the United States and escalate the “dangerous situation.” The “divide” between Israelis and Palestinians.
climate, nature, energy
Last year was the hottest year on record. The Copernicus Climate Change Service, an EU program, concluded that 2023 was 1.48°C above the pre-industrial average (defined as 1850-1900).
Researchers believe that by 2023, the effects of persistently high global ocean temperatures will linger and the planet’s average temperature will rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (Fahrenheit), a standard set in Paris in 2015 to limit climate impacts. It said 2024 could be even worse, as temperatures could be pushed below 2.7 degrees Celsius. change.
The United Nations said in its annual forecast report that it expects a further increase in climate-related disasters and extreme weather events in 2024, leading to soaring food prices due to poor harvests.
“Investment in climate action and sustainable development is woefully underfunded. Hunger and poverty are on the rise, and growing divisions between countries and economies impede an effective response,” Antonio said.・United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated this when sending the report.
Still, while climate-related events are causing anxiety around the world, 55% of those surveyed in a recent survey conducted by the company found that their country’s government would limit carbon emissions, according to France-based research organization Ispos. respondents said they expected to introduce stricter measures in 2024 to and helps cool the earth.
They will know the answer to that expectation next year.
More stories to watch in 2024
- North Korean leader Kim Jong Un He said the country would no longer pursue reconciliation with South Korea and called for North Korea’s constitution to be rewritten to eliminate the idea of a shared state between the war-torn countries. This is a historic step, abandoning decades of peaceful unification.
- A century after the last Olympic Games were held in 1924, Paris will be celebrating its third summer of sporting activity in its history. 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Athletes from Russia, Belarus and Guatemala have been asked to compete as neutrals.
- Haiti continues to descend into lawlessness, criminal organizations are expanding their control over the Western Hemisphere’s poorest countries. Kenya’s parliament has approved plans to send about 1,000 police officers to Haiti to combat gang violence. It is pending legal challenges.
- In early June, European Parliament holds elections. The party is expected to become one of the most controversial political parties in history, due to the rise of far-right parties in several EU countries, including Germany and Hungary.
- Iranian authorities are showing real signs they intend to end their crackdown on peaceful public dissent, more than a year after nationwide protests erupted following a death in police custody. does not show at all. Mahasa Jina Amini defied the country’s compulsory hijab law. In January, two journalists who reported on Amini’s death were temporarily released on bail, but jailed human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, who won the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize, was given an additional prison term. Ta.
- British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s controversial immigration bill A proposal to deport some asylum seekers to Rwanda has survived successive votes in parliament following revolts from right-wing Conservative MPs who do not believe the measures go far enough. But it still faces stiff opposition from the British courts and the House of Lords.
- Indonesia begins migration of up to 1.9 million people to Nusantarawas built on the island of Borneo as part of President Joko Widodo’s efforts to open a new capital due to Jakarta’s sinking and overcrowding.
- Argentina will try to contain its highest inflation rate in 32 years. It rose to 211.4% at the end of last year. Javier Millay, the country’s colorful liberal new presidenthas vowed to ditch Argentina’s peso currency in favor of the US dollar and said he is considering “blowing up” the country’s central bank.
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