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- Polls show Trump still has a double-digit lead in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.
- Allies of former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley are now trying to downplay expectations.
- Meanwhile, DeSantis has his sights set on South Carolina.
The 2024 Republican presidential primary could effectively end on Tuesday, even though the number of Republicans who have actually voted so far is barely over 110,000.
With former President Donald Trump’s overwhelming victory in Iowa, if he can also win New Hampshire, he has a chance of winning the Republican nomination for the third consecutive year.
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley finally got her wish for a one-on-one matchup, but her campaign was already downplaying expectations before Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis abruptly resigned over the weekend. Granite State has had some shocking results in the past, but Haley’s allies say a strong second-place finish could prolong Trump’s celebration just a little longer. I hope so.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of the nation’s first primary.
What is the race ranking?
Mr. Trump leads Ms. Haley in the state by about 18 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average. No matter how you look at it, recent polls all show the former president with a double-digit lead.
So it’s no surprise that Gov. Chris Sununu, who has been a big supporter of Ms. Haley, is trying to pivot from her once rosy expectations for Ms. Haley.
Now, what are their predictions?runner-up.
When can I expect results?
The small town of Dixville Notch continued the tradition of holding the first vote in the primary election at midnight. Haley won the town’s six votes by a landslide.
As for the rest of the state, most polling places open around 7 a.m. ET. The last polling place in the state closes at 8 p.m. ET, but most polling places close an hour earlier.
The Associated Press first reported the results of the 2020 primary around 7:30 p.m. News networks and publications will continue to monitor the situation after early predictions of Trump’s victory in Iowa worried some Republicans, as not all caucuses are complete. That will happen.
Wait, I said Iowa was first, right?
While Iowa’s Republican caucuses were the first elections, New Hampshire has gone to great lengths to ensure that its primaries are always the first elections. Major.
If you want to know how seriously they take this issue, look at what the Democrats are doing. The Democratic National Committee ousted Iowa and New Hampshire, prompting South Carolina to begin a nominating contest. New Hampshire Democrats pursued it so deeply that the state will hold a primary in which President Joe Biden’s name won’t even be on the ballot. That’s because the DNC disqualified all delegates in response to their defiance.
But enough about the Democratic drama.
How is New Hampshire different from Iowa?
New Hampshire has a state-driven primary, unlike Iowa’s party-driven caucuses. It wasn’t until his 1970s that the Iowa caucuses became a major event, but New Hampshire is hosting its first presidential primary since 1920. And, to be sure, there is definitely a rivalry between her two sparsely populated states that have dominated American politics.
The biggest difference is that unlike Iowa, New Hampshire has a more open primary system. Registered independent voters or unaffiliated voters may vote in the primary election of their choice. In Iowa, political parties are requiring independent voters to switch their registration to caucus for candidates. President Trump is trying to argue that this amounts to Democrats stealing the election, but Haley is just playing by the same rules as in 2016.
New Hampshire also doesn’t have as many white evangelical conservatives voting in Republican primaries as Iowa does. These differences have historically given the state a reputation for supporting more centrist Republican presidential candidates. As a result, some promising players, most famously the late Sens. John McCain has largely ignored Iowa and focused on the Granite State. However, it’s not always a winning strategy. Just ask former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
The reverse is also true, with some prospects focusing more on Iowa than New Hampshire and look no further than DeSantis. After failing to win a single county in Iowa, DeSantis’ allies are regrouping in South Carolina for a last stand.
What are the stakes?
No candidate, including Mr. Trump, will come close to winning the number of delegates needed to win the nomination. This is by design. Early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina) have historically been used to narrow down candidates before the big delegate awards are awarded on Super Tuesday.
But early states aren’t just canceling campaigns. Because only one state votes, whether the outcome is fair or unfair, it will shape the media narrative that drives the entire primary. As a result, no recent Republican candidate has emerged without winning one of these four states.
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