The outcome of your investment is never clear

For example, when you look back at the coronavirus crash, do you think it was obvious that there would be a rebound soon?

Or Black Monday 1987, or 9/11. Or the 2008 financial crisis.

If so, did you jump into aggressive stocks right then?

Otherwise, it might not have been so obvious while it was happening.

It is a form of hindsight bias to imagine that the outcome of a frightening scenario is now certain.

Now you are never sure.

And you can only act in the present.

In other words, the outcome of your investment is never obvious.

Accept it, don’t fight it.

You make decisions based on assumptions and opinions, preferably educated ones.

There is uncertainty, so don’t beat yourself up if it turns out that your assumptions and opinions didn’t rule the day.

Maybe you were wrong. Or maybe something unexpected happened.

This allows for mistakes and surprises.

As a buffer, consider an extra-large savings account to use in case something unfortunate happens.

If there’s a part of you that doesn’t want to give in, write down what’s obviously going to happen next.

Will gold go up or down? Are stocks on the verge of decline? Are cryptocurrencies ready for a crash? Or catapult upwards? Will there be 3 or 6 rate cuts?

It’s not that easy, is it?

So let’s not think that at some point in the future, 2024 is going to happen in a predictable and obvious way.

Just as the past few years have had some surprising twists and turns, this year is no different.