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Sunrun is well-positioned to take advantage of disappointing growth in the residential solar market in 2023, Jefferies said, and its stock could double over the next 12 months. Analyst Dushyant Ailani called the stock a buy and raised his price target by $6 to $31 per share, double Wednesday’s closing price of $15.58. Sunrun shares fell nearly 9% in morning trading Thursday after the company posted a steeper fourth-quarter loss than Wall Street expected and missed revenue estimates. But Ailani takes a long-term view, pointing out that Sunrun is a major clean energy provider with a 60% share of the new residential market. Sunrun’s transition from a solar-only company to one that also offers battery storage should act as a catalyst to increase net value for subscribers, analysts told clients in a research note Thursday. Sunrun also stands to benefit from lower costs and Inflation Control Act tax credits, he said. The company had net subscribers of $13,445 in the fourth quarter, beating consensus estimates by 12%, Ailani wrote. Sunrun has made progress toward storage, with connection rates improving from 15% in the first quarter of 2023 to about 45% in the fourth quarter, he said. Airani’s new target price is based on Sunrun’s future subscriber growth and the current value of existing customers. Jeffries estimates that Sunrun will add about 121,000 new subscribers in his 2024. This puts him 7% ahead of consensus predictions. Collectively, the new subscribers will add $1 billion in value, the company says. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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