Are we headed for World War III?Texas A&M experts say that’s unlikely.

Much of the international community has been on edge in recent months due to rising geopolitical tensions, the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and a number of armed conflicts elsewhere, with the world on the verge of a broader global conflict. There is growing speculation that he may be headed.

In January, the outgoing British military commander, General Patrick Saunders, said the British public should be ready to form a “citizen army” in the event of war between NATO members and Russia. This raised eyebrows as it reminded people of similar military conscription policies. in World War I and World War II. Many Western media outlets directly compare the current geopolitical situation with events that preceded these wars, highlighting the role of competing alliances, economic tensions, and disputes over borders and territory.

Although Downing Street quickly retracted Mr Sanders’ comments (Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s press secretary called them “useless”), concerns about a new world war stemming from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East It continues to spread.analysis from bloomberg It shows that references to World War III in news articles recently hit a 16-month high.

So is the world really heading towards World War II? Current Texas A&M asked Dr. Jacen Castillo and Dr. John Schuessler, associate professors of international relations at Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service. Castillo and Schuessler are co-directors of the Albritton Center for Grand Strategy at his Bush School.

What makes a war a “world war”?

According to Schuessler, although the term “world war” has only been used twice, the specific term “world war” is applied to armed conflicts between major world powers that span multiple regions of the world. It is said that Our concept of what a world war would be like, therefore, depends on who the “great powers” of our time are, their relative military power, and where they are located geographically. It really depends on how you do it.

For example, at the height of the Cold War, Americans clearly understood what “World War III” meant: a deadly struggle between East and West in which the United States and its allies would fight a well-armed Soviet Union. . “The main front would have been in Europe,” Schuessler said.

Castillo said the situation we see today is very different because the post-Soviet state of Russia and other modern adversaries of the United States are less of a threat than the Soviet Union.

“Today’s Russian army is a poor imitation of the Red Army,” Castillo said.

That leaves only China, Schussler and Castillo said. As the only country competing with the United States for global economic and military supremacy, China, not Russia, will likely be the United States’ primary adversary in a 21st century global war.

“Today, it is difficult to imagine a world war in which the United States would not fight China. Whether Russia would cooperate with China in such a war is an open question,” Schussler said. “We are not talking about a world war until the United States is involved in a war with China that somehow joins the wars in Europe and the Middle East.”

After all, such a conflict is unlikely to occur anytime soon, Castillo said. China may be the closest thing the United States has to a Soviet-level rival, but it remains to be seen whether the country will actually reach such heights.

“In the future, China and the United States may enter a world war,” Castillo said. “But at this point, China, like the Soviet Union, is not a military peer of the United States. Moreover, it is not clear whether China’s economy will continue to develop enough to become a military peer like the Soviet Union.”

If this isn’t a world war in progress, what is?

Even if a world war is not on the horizon, the recent turmoil on the world stage is certainly a cause for concern, Schussler said.

“Americans are not wrong to worry that we will be drawn into a war in which the United States supports one side and supports the other,” he said. “That said, the United States has managed to escape wars in Europe and the Middle East so far.”

Ultimately, Castillo said, the ongoing regional conflicts may be a sign that America’s grip on the rest of the world is starting to diminish somewhat. Even if they are unable to directly compete with the United States, major powers like Russia will be able to assert their geopolitical interests aggressively, making it difficult for the United States to maintain its post-Cold War role as “world marshal.” He said that it has become.

“The days when the United States was the only great power never lasted long,” Castillo said. “We now live in a time when adversaries can resist the liberal international order.”

This marks a return to the old world situation, where multiple powers compete for position on the world stage and armed conflicts over territory and resources are more common, he said.

“What we’re seeing is a return to great power politics,” Castillo said. “Specifically, this new reality means that the United States will have to make difficult choices about when and where to use military force. If we don’t make choices, we will either go bankrupt or go bankrupt. We risk fighting unnecessary wars that weaken us, or both.”