Fears of Republican shutdown grow: ‘We could end up in a world of hurt’

Leaders of both parties are scrambling to reach an agreement on government spending as the window for negotiations quickly closes and fears of a government shutdown grow.

Congress returns to Washington next week, but with some government agencies facing impending funding deadlines of March 1st and others March 8th, lawmakers will be able to resolve their differences and move the government forward. There is little time to bring legislation to the floor to keep the system functioning.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) has maneuvered to avoid a government shutdown since he gavel in October, but recalcitrant conservatives are pushing for across-the-board cuts to the proposed budget. I am starting to lose patience with his attitude. And some Capitol observers are already warning that the ongoing fighting is the biggest threat to shutting down Congress now.

“I’m worried. Of all the fears from last year, I think this is the scariest. I think we could be in for a world of hurt,” said a Senate Republican aide. “I don’t know if it will be partial or complete, but I think the possibility of closure is the highest this year.”

Party leaders in both chambers are trying to assure the public and markets that the two parties will come together to pass the spending bill and avoid disruption to government operations.

However, many disagreements remain between the parties. And Prime Minister Johnson is facing further pressure from within his own Republican conference. That’s because conservatives there are demanding right-wing policy riders in both Congress and the White House who are not starters for Democrats.

A combination of political, tactical and time factors has led many to fear that Congress will be unable to reach an agreement to prevent a partial shutdown looming next weekend.

“I think the odds are 50-50 right now,” Rep. Patrick McHenry, RN.C., told CBS’ Maj. Garrett on the podcast “The Takeout” this week.

Financial Services Committee Chairman McHenry said the current threat of shutdowns is a “preventable disaster” and said party leadership passed a spending bill late last year instead of starting the process in an election year. He said it was a crisis that could have been avoided if it had been brought forward.

He told Johnson he would resist ultimatums from Conservatives and work furiously over the holidays to get the bill together in time for an initial deadline of next Friday. We urge all agreements to move forward.

The deal is expected to be announced as early as Sunday.

“All the chairman has to do is allow the appropriations committees to come to an agreement,” McHenry said. “If the chairman wanted to stop it for any reason, the government would probably shut down.”

The debate is the latest challenge for Mr Johnson, who is facing the same dilemma over government funding that led to his predecessor’s ouster less than four months after becoming Speaker of the House of Commons. And all of his options come with risks.

If Mr. Johnson brings a bipartisan spending compromise to the floor, he could keep the government functioning, but he could face a backlash from the conservatives who defeated former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). be. If he decides to block these spending bills, it would likely shut down the government and provide a political gift to President Biden and Democrats months before the November election.

“The House is working hard to meet deadlines,” a House spokesperson told The Hill.

Sen. John Thune (R.S.D.) acknowledged that Mr. Johnson is essentially in the driver’s seat, saying the direction of the spending debate “depends largely on what the House thinks it can do.” Stated.

“We’ll see what the appetite is, but the House will probably be pushing for it,” Thune told The Hill on Thursday.

“There’s going to be a lot of pressure to get it done in a short period of time,” he added.

Hardliners have already stepped up their attacks on Mr Johnson.

Twenty-eight members of the House Freedom Caucus sent a letter to the speaker Wednesday asking for an update on conservative policy demands that touch on a number of explosive topics, including abortion, immigration and pay cuts for certain federal employees.

Hardliners said that without these provisions, the House would have a hard time contesting Republican support for government funding.

“There are many other policies and actions that Congress should not fund, and unless we can eliminate them, the spending bill will be less likely to be supported even by a Republican majority,” the lawmakers wrote. ing.

Requests for policy riders have already been flatly rejected by Democratic leaders, who have warned that any bill containing these provisions will never reach Biden’s desk.

“Rider has no room for negotiation. They are off the table,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Connecticut), the ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Committee. “Take them off the table. We can come to a conclusion.”

Democrats have their own policy demands, including the federal program for Women, Infants, and Children (known as WIC) that helps feed millions of low-income children and their mothers. This includes increasing funding for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program. WIC faces a funding shortfall, and DeLauro said Democrats won’t support a spending bill that doesn’t address that.

“It’s a non-negotiable issue,” she said.

As expected, hardliners are already eyeing a Plan B to fund the government if conservatives fail to secure a policy deal. The paper reports that the resolution is a one-year continuation of the 1% reduction across the board starting in April. Lawmakers from the organization also joined last year’s debt limitation agreement to encourage completion of the spending process.

Democrats and even some Republican advocacy hawks adamantly oppose the cuts, but conservatives embrace them.

“If we’re not going to secure significant policy changes and we’re not going to continue spending below the cap adopted by a bipartisan majority less than a year ago, we could instead save Americans $100 billion. Why move forward with this when you can pass a one-year funding resolution?” In the first year? ” Freedom Caucus members wrote to Johnson.

The stakes of the spending debate extend to the election campaign, where Republicans are trying to show voters that they can govern competently and deserve to remain in the House majority next year. With this in mind, some of the more vulnerable Republicans are already pressuring Johnson to act quickly next week to prevent a government shutdown.

“Once we get back, we need to move quickly to pass a spending bill. The time for haggling is over,” said Rep. Mike Lawler (New York). “I’ll leave it up to the leaders to decide what plans they have going forward. But at the end of the day, we need to fund the government. We’re not dealing with a government shutdown. there is no.”

Lawler, who represents a district that Biden won by 10 points in 2020, also had some pertinent words for conservatives who say they would prefer a government shutdown rather than new funding legislation that increases deficit spending. Ta.

“My colleagues who have a problem with this issue should have thought long and hard about Kevin McCarthy before removing him as Speaker of the House,” he said.

Another potential landmine in the debate is the issue of sending additional aid to Ukraine, which has vexed MPs, particularly Mr Johnson, for months.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson had opposed the Foreign Aid Plus Border Security Bill being negotiated by the House of Lords, arguing that it did not include sufficient border provisions. But conservatives remain hesitant to send aid overseas without border security, calling for policies similar to HR2, the comprehensive border package passed last year.

McHenry said it’s “very likely” that lawmakers will try to incorporate stalled foreign aid into a spending bill, especially if the government is shut down and Congress is trying to find a way out.

“If that happens, it could be after the government shutdown. That’s when the points of influence will be powerful,” McHenry told CBS. “That could happen the week before that, or the week after that… There are several legislative steps that could be taken.”

But combining spending with foreign aid will only expose Johnson to further attacks from conservatives, many of whom oppose foreign aid that does not address border issues first. Some say they trust Mr. Johnson not to bring such a bill to the floor.

Rep. Byron Donald (R-Fla.) said, “Our members have no interest in funding future Ukraine efforts if our southern border is not secure. The Speaker has made that clear. ” “The White House and the Senate don’t care at all.”

As lawmakers lash out for a fourth shutdown showdown in what has been described as the most unproductive Congress in years, some are unable to accomplish “key” parts of their jobs. He openly expresses his dissatisfaction.

“The appropriations bill is just a matter of basic job performance…like showing up to work on time and passing a drug test. Those kind of basic levels. I’m not saying he’s better or better or anything,” McHenry told CBS. “But we’ve been doing a terrible job of that.”