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(Bloomberg) — Wall Street saw another flurry of bond sales as issuers looked to borrow ahead of key economic data later this week.
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U.S. Treasuries fell after a $42 billion seven-year bond auction and a flood of new corporate bonds. Eight companies are considering selling U.S. investment-grade bonds on Tuesday, according to an informal survey of underwriters. The offering comes a day after February’s issuance set a record with 18 companies entering the market.
Investors have been driven by lower expectations about how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates — a policy change likely to drive bond gains — and yield-seeking investors with plenty of options. It is battling an onslaught of new corporate bond issuance. Traders no longer expect the Fed to cut rates by more than 75 basis points this year, putting their view in line with what policymakers have indicated is the most likely outcome.
“We continue to encourage investors to act now to secure the current attractive bond yields,” said Solita Marcelli of UBS Global Wealth Management. “We particularly like the five-year duration segment of high-quality bonds because this part of the yield curve offers the best combination of high yields, stability, and sensitivity to lower interest rate expectations.”
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 3 basis points to 4.31%. The S&P500 was almost unchanged. Chevron and Hess have announced that Exxon Mobil is considering steps that could end their $53 billion merger and increase their share of Guyana’s huge offshore oil reserves. It fell as a result. Macy’s has embarked on a plan to close nearly a third of its eponymous U.S. stores. A bullish outlook for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings has spurred an industry rally. Bitcoin hovered around $57,000.
Traders held off on big bets ahead of Thursday’s inflation data and central bank speech parade.
Fed Director Michelle Bowman reiterated her expectation that inflation would continue to decline further if interest rates are held at current levels, but she also said it is too early to start cutting rates and there is no rush to lower borrowing costs. He joined a large number of officials in emphasizing that
The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index is likely to confirm that stance, potentially further reducing market expectations for rate cuts in the coming months.
“Market expectations for a Fed rate cut this quarter have already been reset, so we don’t expect much volatility from this data print,” said Lauren Goodwin of New York Life Investments. “However, market activity is likely to be heavily driven by interest rate expectations for the foreseeable future, so we are closely monitoring for any surprises.”
To Yun Yu Ma of BMO Wealth Management, the stock market appears to be in a period of pause and consolidation of recent gains, but important PCE inflation data as investors seek additional data. will help confirm whether inflation is really re-accelerating, which could be the next short-term catalyst for markets.
“This is a ‘Teflon’ stock market, showing an uncanny ability to shake off the bad news and focus on the positive news,” he said. “There’s nothing wrong with the market being able to stick around for so long, including higher expectations for inflation and delayed expectations for Fed rate cuts.”
The calm in the stock market has reduced demand for hedging related to the S&P 500.
The three-month 25-delta put skew (a measure of the price of a put option against an equivalent call) has fallen to its lowest level since 2006, with limited demand to hedge against declines and missed out on further upside. Concerns about this were brought to light.
Barclays became the latest bank to raise its year-end target for the S&P 500, following increases from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS Group Inc. and Piper Sandler & Co. Strategists led by Venu Krishna raised their forecasts for the U.S. stock benchmark. 4,800 to 5,300.
“The U.S. economy will continue to defy interest rate headwinds in 2024, just as supercap tech companies continue to defy even the most bullish profit targets,” they write.
In fact, the Magnificent Seven group of tech giants saw average earnings per share increase 55% in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Most of this group contributed to the Nasdaq 100’s record high and fourth straight month of gains.
The quarterly profit beat rate for S&P 500 companies is on track to reach its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Gina Martin Adams and Wendy Soong. More than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, and the metric is on track for his earnings per share to increase 7.7% year-over-year, well ahead of preseason expectations of 1.2% .
According to Invesco’s Christina Hooper, there is a perception that the U.S. stock market is trading at extremely high valuations. She pointed out that while it’s true that the S&P 500 has an above-average price-to-earnings ratio, much of it is driven by just a few stocks.
“The good news is that this narrow group of stocks, known as the ‘Magnificent Seven,’ is living up to the high expectations set for it,” Hooper said. “Given their collective performance, the Magnificent Seven’s valuation remains high relative to the broader U.S. stock market, but its earnings growth over the next few years is expected to be nearly five times that of the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500. is expected.”
“This is not “irrational enthusiasm,” she concluded, but more like “rational enthusiasm.”
Miller Tabak’s Matt Maley has a warning.
He said there were signs of frothing in the market after the strong rise in stock prices. That doesn’t mean there’s going to be a big reversal in stock prices any time soon, but it does give investors reason not to get too complacent.
“The stock market could easily continue to rise,” Maley said. “However, it is important for investors to remain nimble and plan ahead for what they will do if some significant ‘surprise’ occurs at some point in the coming months and volatility increases significantly. We believe that this is important.”
Company highlights:
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Viking Therapeutics Inc.’s mid-stage clinical trial results suggest the biotech company could be a strong competitor to Eli Lilly & Co.’s and Novo Nordisk A/S’s weight-loss drugs It skyrocketed in response.
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Warner Bros. Discovery has stopped pursuing a merger with rival Hollywood studio Paramount Global, CNBC reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
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Apple is halting a decade-long effort to build electric cars, abandoning one of the most ambitious projects in the company’s history, people familiar with the matter said.
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American Airlines Group is closing in on an order for about 100 narrowbody jets to be split between Airbus SE and Boeing Co., with the European aircraft maker securing the lion’s share of the contract, according to people familiar with the negotiations. It is said that there is a high possibility.
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Capital One Financial Corp. has estimated that the time and costs required to resolve Discover Financial Services’ regulatory challenges will be at or above expectations.
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ASM International NV’s sales forecast for the current quarter was well below market expectations, showing the Dutch chip equipment maker continues to grapple with an uneven recovery in global semiconductor demand.
This week’s main events:
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Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decisions Wednesday
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Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Wednesday
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US wholesale inventories, GDP, Wednesday
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Fed’s Rafael Bostic, Susan Collins and John Williams speak on Wednesday
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G20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs will meet in Sao Paulo from Wednesday to Thursday
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German CPI, unemployment rate, Thursday
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US Consumer Income, PCE Deflator, New Unemployment Insurance Claims, Thursday
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Fed’s Austan Goolsby, Raphael Bostic and Loretta Mester speak Thursday
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China official PMI, Caixin manufacturing PMI, Friday
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Eurozone S&P World Manufacturing PMI, CPI, Unemployment Rate, Friday
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BOE Chief Economist Hugh Pill speaks on Friday
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US Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Friday
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Fed’s Rafael Bostic and Mary Daly speak on Friday
The main movements in the market are:
stock
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The S&P 500 was little changed as of 2:39 p.m. New York time.
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Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%.
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MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
currency
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Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index little changed
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The euro was almost unchanged at $1.0845.
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The British pound was almost unchanged at $1.2680.
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The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 150.53 yen to the dollar.
cryptocurrency
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Bitcoin rose 4.6% to $57,197.32
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Ether rose 1.9% to $3,246
bond
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The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.31%.
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Germany’s 10-year bond yield rose 2 basis points to 2.46%.
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The UK 10-year bond yield rose 3 basis points to 4.20%.
merchandise
This article was produced in partnership with Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Carly Wanna, Alexandra Semenova, Isabelle Lee, and Carmen Reinicke.
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