Jake Sullivan navigates a world of chaos

Sullivan said the administration supports humanitarian aid to Gaza, but also supports Israel’s right to defend itself. The meeting did little to allay attendees’ concerns, several people in attendance said.

“I didn’t feel like there was a dent,” said pollster James Zogby, director of the Arab American Institute in Washington, who attended the meeting.

In wars spanning Afghanistan, Ukraine, and now Gaza, Sullivan acts as a mediator, trying to negotiate between allies and enemies, and sometimes between warring U.S. government agencies. Supporters say he has put together a Western coalition to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, thwarted a potential second front in the Israeli conflict, and committed to semiconductors and other advanced technologies as part of a blueprint to blunt China’s competitive advantage. It is praised for strengthening export controls on cutting-edge technology. .

“I go back and forth every day between guns and butter,” Sullivan told the Wall Street Journal, explaining that guns are wars in the Middle East and Europe, and butter is allies to strengthen and protect the American economy. He explained that it was a collaboration with

Mr. Sullivan’s first year in office was marred by the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, a decision on which he disagreed with the president, officials said. After a tumultuous exit and subsequent backlash, Ms. Sullivan said she felt the weight of her responsibility and began considering resigning. Instead, he decided to remain in the West Wing, applying the lessons he learned to Afghanistan, and now, nearly three years later, faces what may be his biggest test yet. It is a foreign policy crisis in the Middle East that could jeopardize Biden’s re-election prospects. -election.

Polls show Biden leading former President Donald Trump in Michigan. Michigan is also a key electoral state and has a large Muslim and Arab-American population, many of whom are outraged by the president’s response to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. And the Biden administration’s unwavering support for Ukraine remains stalled on Capitol Hill.

Sullivan was 44 when Biden named him national security adviser, making him the youngest person to hold the job in more than half a century. He is now on track to become one of the longest-serving national security advisers, with supporters comparing his influence on U.S. foreign policy to that of the late Henry Kissinger. ing.

Raised in Minnesota as one of five children in an Irish Catholic family, Sullivan quickly rose to prominence in Washington. He started working for Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who connected him with Hillary Clinton, who was running against former President Barack Obama for the 2008 Democratic nomination. He made such an impression on the former first lady that, although she failed to secure her nomination, President Obama named her his first secretary of state, with Mr. Sullivan by her side.

When Clinton left office, Sullivan considered running for Congress, but was persuaded to remain in the administration as national security adviser to then-Vice President Biden. And when Biden returned to the White House as president, pledging a “foreign policy for the middle class” and determined to end America’s longest war in Afghanistan, Sullivan was a natural choice as national security adviser. Was chosen.

“If the president says it’s blue, it’s blue.”

Biden entered the White House in January 2021, about a year after the Trump administration signed an agreement with the Taliban to withdraw U.S. troops. The deal calls for U.S. troops to withdraw by May 2021, and the question is how Biden will implement that decision, especially after the Taliban launched a blitzkrieg across the United States. It became.

Some of the president’s top advisers, including Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have urged Biden to keep about 2,500 troops in Afghanistan to maintain stability. Mr. Sullivan also believed a small detachment of U.S. troops could remain on the ground, according to a person familiar with his thinking.

But as other officials and experts have said, Sullivan’s role is not to advocate for policy but to present an analysis of options to Biden, who will listen to advice and make the final decision. is. One former official compared it to the controversy over the color of the sky. Even if five people say blue and Sullivan says red, what ultimately matters is what the president believes.

“When the president says it’s blue, it’s blue,” the former official said.

This dynamic also played out in Afghanistan, where Mr Biden decided the US would leave by the end of August after intelligence reports showed the Taliban were likely to take control of Kabul sooner than initially expected. This would be one of the most criticized decisions of his presidency.

On August 15 of the same year, Kabul fell to the Taliban, and the country was thrown into panic. Sullivan worked with the Pentagon to coordinate the airlift of more than 100,000 people out of Afghanistan, but the effort was overshadowed by scenes of desperate Afghans clinging to the wings of departing military planes. .

Just days before the deadline for the U.S. withdrawal, a suicide bombing and gunfire at the airport claimed the lives of 13 U.S. service members and 150 Afghans.

The impact of the evacuation and its aftermath was so severe in Washington that administration officials say Mr. Sullivan was shaken by its implementation and troubled by the idea that more could have been done to alleviate the chaos. He reportedly considered resigning.

Sullivan said the fall of the Western-backed government in Kabul prepared him for the foreign policy crisis that came just months after U.S. intelligence determined that Russian forces were preparing for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I believe. His goal was to try to stop the invasion and, if that failed, to prepare for a counterattack.

In December 2021, Sullivan spoke by phone with Yuri Ushakov, a senior foreign policy adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and issued a stark warning about the consequences of escalation. Russia, seemingly undeterred, continued its preparations.

Even though U.S. intelligence indicated an upcoming attack, some European allies and even the Kiev government did not believe that Putin would carry out such an imprudent plan. With time running out, Mr. Sullivan launched an unprecedented effort to persuade them, using classified information the government had declassified so that he could publicly denounce Putin’s aggression.

As signs of a Russian invasion mount, Sullivan uses satellite images and other materials to show a massive buildup of Russian forces and expose Putin’s intentions before he has a chance to launch a so-called false flag operation. He led efforts to make the information public.

Although the revelations did not stop Russian troops from rushing across the border on February 24, 2022, Sullivan did not allow for weapons to strengthen Ukraine’s military, economic aid to the country, It helped lay the foundations for a coordinated Western response, including comprehensive sanctions against Ukraine. It has dealt a huge blow to Russia’s economy and defense industry.

Billions of dollars in military and economic aid to Ukraine have helped the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy maintain control of Kiev against all odds.

In an article published in Foreign Affairs magazine in early October 2023, Sullivan praised the administration’s efforts and touted aid to Ukraine as “sustainable,” while the Middle East remains a challenge. However, he also pointed out that “it’s quieter than before.” It’s been going on for decades. ”

Just days after this article was first published, Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7th. The online version was quickly updated to remove the “quiet” reference.

The sudden eruption of new conflicts in the Middle East was a shock to the Biden administration, but there were also early successes. Just days after the Hamas attack, Mr. Sullivan made a series of phone calls to senior Israeli politicians trying to persuade them not to launch a pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah fighters, according to government officials.

He said U.S. intelligence had not indicated any imminent attack plans by the Lebanon-based group. Officials say these calls have triggered a potentially dangerous escalation of regional conflict.

But Sullivan also had to defend the administration’s full support for Israel, even though the death toll in the Gaza Strip now exceeds 30,000. According to the Palestinian Authority, most of the dead were women and children, and the numbers do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Now, as the Biden administration races toward the November presidential election, Sullivan’s efforts may face the ultimate test.

“For me, the measure of success is a series of simple questions: When I leave, will America have a stronger industrial and innovation base than when I came?” Sullivan said. He told WSJ. Is the enemy more irritated than when I arrived? ”

But the administration’s successes in creating jobs, controlling inflation, and boosting domestic production do not seem to be accepted by the American people. Aid to Ukraine, once the pinnacle of foreign policy, has come to a near standstill as Congress stalls on passing a new aid package.

And while public support for Israel remains strong across the United States, growing dissatisfaction among some Democratic voters is worrying the White House, particularly in Michigan.

Despite the harsh lessons and clear dedication to policy, Sullivan said in an interview with the Journal that he once considered running for office himself, but after seeing the cost it would impose on politicians. He said he had lost interest.

“I watched the life of a politician, and I started thinking, ‘That’s not for me,'” he said. ”

Email Vivian Salama (vivian.salama@wsj.com), Sabrina Siddiqui (sabrina.siddiqui@wsj.com), and Gordon Lubold (gordon.lubold@wsj.com).