The Philippines is attracting increasing attention at the Melbourne Summit. clash with china Regarding claims in the South China Sea, they called for a stronger, more united position to uphold the rule of law of the sea.Malaysia is resist pressure However, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said, “We have no problem with China,” leaving him to choose a side.
This view is not uncommon. For example, a survey of more than 1,300 people last year found that 43% believed that the conflict over Taiwan would destabilize the region, while about a third said their country would take sides over the island. They say they fear being forced to take sides and feel their government should take a neutral position. People across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. More than 45% say their government should oppose the use of force and instead reach out to diplomacy.
However, Australia continues to beat the drum of war. Australia continues to maintain economic ties with China, even though the relationship is nearing a thaw. military posture As a loyal ally of the United States. If ASEAN were to adopt the same approach that Australia is taking in dealing with China, it could cause rifts within the organization and lead to instability in the region.
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Why the South China Sea dispute remains one of the region’s most pressing issues
Why the South China Sea dispute remains one of the region’s most pressing issues
Centrality of ASEAN The key to success is trying to solve problems through mutual respect and non-interference, rather than applying third country policies, which Australia appears to be doing.
In recent years, Australia has strengthened its cooperation with the United States. Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and orcs alliancehas weakened its influence as a central power in easing tensions between the United States and China. If ASEAN wants to continue resolving regional issues independently, it must resist all pressures on its neutrality, especially if it wants to increase its influence as a third power.
ASEAN is acutely aware of China’s enormous power over the region. In last year’s ASEAN Population Survey, nearly 60% named China as the most influential economic power, compared to 10.5% in the US, 4.2% in the EU and just 2.7% in Australia. China also ranks first in terms of political and strategic influence with 41.5%, compared with 32% for the United States, 5% for the EU, and 3% for Australia.
Last year, the trade volume between China and ASEAN exceeded US$911 billion, and the two countries traded with each other. largest trading partner 4 years in a row. As a bloc, ASEAN is unlikely to accept economic cooperation conditioned on military or geopolitical cooperation amid U.S.-China tensions.
Unlike the European Union, where all member states are representative democracies, ASEAN is made up of member states with different political systems and often conflicting ideologies. For example, Brunei is an absolute monarchy, Singapore is a parliamentary democracy, and Vietnam remains a one-party system. communist country. This makes ASEAN as a forum even more noteworthy.
ASEAN’s role cannot be summarized in binary terms. We cannot be forced to choose between China and the United States. In an increasingly multipolar world, tensions between the United States and China will likely increase. test For individual ASEAN member states, ASEAN as a bloc has deliberately avoided establishing institutions like NATO and has focused firmly on regional integration.
The principles of mutual respect for independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and non-interference in the internal affairs of member states present fundamental ideological and practical inconsistencies with Australia’s security ambitions.
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In particular, an attempt to establish a military alliance called SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization) with the United States, France, Great Britain, New Zealand, Australia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Pakistan in 1954 failed spectacularly due to a lack of regional support.
Any security suggestions or proposals made by Australia will be received with caution by ASEAN. Looks like you have an appetite This is because the conflict is seen as antithetical to ASEAN’s quest for peace in the region.
“A major conflict in our region would have a devastating impact on our communities and economy,” Australia’s Wong acknowledged at the ASEAN summit. Gaza and ukraine showed that. ”
However, Australia chose to work with the United States, which continues to supply arms to Israel. Three people exercised their veto power. UN Security Council resolution calling for ceasefire in Gaza. The United States broke its promise to the Soviet Union not to expand NATO beyond Russia-held Germany. blamed For the Ukraine war.
Since the conflict began, the United States has sent military aid worth $14.3 billion to Israel and $46.3 billion to Ukraine. This strongly suggests that peace has become an elusive concept due to the constant need to maintain global hegemony.
Australia’s latest proposals to fund maritime security in Southeast Asia must be taken with extreme caution. What the region needs to ensure peace and economic security is stronger diplomacy, not more weapons.
Sameed Basha is a defense and political analyst with a master’s degree in international relations from Deakin University, Australia.