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The world’s population is expected to decline for the first time since the Black Death due to plummeting birth rates, a Lancet study has found.
Growth in the world’s population of just over 8 billion people is beginning to slow as women are bearing fewer children, and the population could begin to decline within decades.
It will be the first time the world’s population has declined since the Black Death pandemic killed 50 million people, including up to a third of Europe’s population, in the mid-1300s.
This was the only time ever that the number of humans on Earth decreased, with historians estimating that the world’s population fell from about 400 million to 350 million.
To maintain population growth, known as the total fertility rate, women need to have an average of 2.1 children, which stands at 2.23 globally in 2021.
However, experts predict that it has continued to decline from 4.84 in 1950, dropping to 1.83 by 2050 and 1.59 by 2100.
This means that by 2050, 155 out of 204 countries will have birth rates below the level needed to maintain their population size.
By 2100, sub-Saharan African countries will account for 97% of the world’s population, or 198 countries, and more than one in two births.
In 13 countries, including South Korea, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bhutan, women have less than one child on average.
The UK, like other high-income countries, has a below-average birth rate, at just 1.49 in 2021.
According to researchers, it has fallen from 2.19 in 1950 and will continue to fall to 1.38 and 1.30 in the next 25 and 75 years.
That means the current population of around 67 million people will become increasingly unequal to older generations and, without migration, will decline as older people die.
Britain’s fertility decline is already unfolding in real time, with recent data showing fewer pupils in primary and secondary schools applying for once-coveted spaces.
And women are increasingly turning to egg freezing, recently highlighted by health leaders calling on fertility clinics to better define the chances of success.
Last week, Conservative MP Miriam Cates said women should not be leaving work so late to have children and were being “exploited” by “false promises” that egg freezing would work.
Experts say the impact of population decline on society will be “immeasurable” as older people outnumber younger people, increasing pressure on health services and the workforce.
By 2100, only 26 countries will have birth rates higher than deaths, and “most countries in the world will move into natural population decline.”
The researchers added that there could also be an increase in immigration from countries still experiencing a “baby boom” to address labor shortages, which would need to be managed.
Dr Natalia Bhattacharjee, co-author of the study and principal investigator at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, said the decline in birth rates would “completely reconfigure the global economy and international balance”. . Power and will require the restructuring of society. ”
“Global awareness of the challenges around migration and global aid networks becomes increasingly important as there is fierce competition for migrants to sustain economic growth and the baby boom in sub-Saharan Africa continues rapidly. right.”
Professor Stein-Emil Volset, senior author of the IHME, said the world is “facing extraordinary social changes throughout the 21st century”.
“The decline in birth rates is a success story in many ways, not only because of better and more easily available contraceptive methods, but also because many women are now able to delay or have fewer children and have access to education and employment opportunities. “This reflects the fact that the number is increasing.”
The researchers used key indicators such as women’s education, contraceptive use, child mortality, and urbanization to determine changes in fertility rates, but these projections were influenced by local policies, pandemics and wars. This may change depending on world events such as
Professor Melinda Mills, Director of the Population Sciences Unit at the University of Oxford, said: “Population decline and aging require societal preparedness and restructuring.
“From the food security and migration patterns that are affected, to the very infrastructure of each country,” she says. “Demographics not only affect infrastructure such as schools, housing, transport, housing, health care and pensions, but also cultural and voting changes.”
The Lancet study was conducted by IHME and funded by the Bill and Martha Gates Foundation.
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