Don’t read too much into past market losses

Labor market remains tight
U.S. private sector payrolls rose by 164,000 jobs in December, according to payroll firm ADP. This number is higher than the 130,000 expected and the 101,000 that was revised downward in November. Combined with a decline in new jobless claims in the final week of 2023, this shows the U.S. labor market remains tight, although the pace of wage growth has slowed, ADP said.

Nasdaq’s struggles
U.S. stocks fell on Thursday, snapping the Nasdaq Composite Index’s longest losing streak since October 2022. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 9 basis points to 4.003%. Asia-Pacific markets also fell on Friday, erasing earlier gains. However, Japan’s Nikkei stock average bucked its trend to rise 0.6% as a survey showed that activity in Japan’s private sector slowed to a halt in December.

BYD overtakes Tesla
In 2011, Elon Musk dismissed BYD, saying the company’s cars were “not particularly attractive.” [and] Twelve years later, BYD has overtaken Tesla as the top EV manufacturer in the fourth quarter of 2023. Here’s how the Chinese automaker achieved that feat, and the company’s five best-selling cars in China.

Rocky’s start to the first IPO
RoboSense Technology was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday, becoming the region’s first initial public offering (IPO) in 2024. But shares of the Alibaba-backed technology company, which develops laser imaging, detection and sensors, did not get off to a promising start. Autonomous vehicle ranging (LiDAR) sensors fell 2% on the first day of trading.

[PRO] Look beyond evaluation
Inflation may be calming globally, but recent attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea could cause prices to rise again. To counter the potential for price increases, the fund goes beyond valuation to deliver returns greater than the UK Consumer Price Index plus an additional 3% (net of fees and over a five-year period). This is the goal.

Stock prices have fallen for three consecutive days since the beginning of the new year. Megacap technology stocks are particularly struggling. After another weak session yesterday, Apple is down about 5.5% so far this year, Amazon is down his 4.85% and Microsoft is in the red by his 2.15%.

Yesterday’s losses in tech stocks caused the Nasdaq Composite Index to drop 0.56% on Thursday, marking its fifth straight loss and longest losing streak since October 2022. The S&P 500 fell 0.34%, falling for the fourth straight session. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to manage a modest gain.

But investors shouldn’t take the first three business days as tea leaves for how the rest of the year will turn out.

“Whether this continues or not, I don’t think the last few days matter too much,” Stephen Wieting, chief investment strategist at Citi Global Wealth, told CNBC. “It’s just a statistical coin toss.”

In fact, Wietling expects the S&P to rise more than 6% to around $5,000 by the end of the year.

John Stoltzfus, chief market strategist at Oppenheimer, is more optimistic. He believes the S&P could rise by more than 10% in 2024, buoyed by a better-than-expected earnings season.

“If you take into account the 11 rate hikes and four pauses so far, there was no recession.” [along with] “The resilience we’re seeing on the business, consumer, labor side, all of those things are looking very good,” he said.

There is evidence to support his prediction. Consumer strength is evidenced by data from Bank of America and Adobe. Spending on holiday items increased 0.3% year over year in the five weeks from Thanksgiving to Dec. 30, according to Bank of America credit and debit card data, and Nov. 1, according to Adobe Analytics. From December to December, online spending rose 4.9% to a record $222.1 billion. 31.

Meanwhile, economists expect today’s U.S. jobs report to show the labor market continues to cool to a reasonable temperature.

“The big picture is that the labor market is slowly slowing down in a very orderly manner,” said Julia Pollack, chief economist at online job market ZipRecruiter.

The outlook for stocks for the rest of the year is in the first three days, as consumers remain strong, the job market remains moderate with no spikes in unemployment, and inflation (hopefully) continues to subside. Seems better than suggested.