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Armenian officials hope to ease the chill in relations between Yerevan and Russia by creating a dry port linking Yerevan to an emerging international trade corridor.
Officials said the government’s plan aims to transform Armenia into a “manufacturing hub with a focus on transport, transportation and exports.” read out loud From a meeting of the country’s investment committee announced earlier this year. The dry port concept is based on the establishment of a free trade zone featuring intermodal transport facilities: air, rail and trucking facilities connected to warehouses and industrial parks.
First announced three years ago, officials are now touting the project as a potential golden goose for the state treasury. For Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, dry ports are a pillar of his “Peace Crossroads” vision. ambitious initiative create “New reality” Profitable trade is rooted in the Caucasus. Authorities have already allocated $37 million in public funds for the dry port project, located near the city of Gyumri, Armenia’s second largest city and site of the Russian Empire. military base.
For most of the post-Soviet period, Armenians viewed Russia as their protector from two hostile neighbors, Azerbaijan and Turkey. However, this view has fundamentally changed since the country’s defeat in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Many Armenians feel that Russian peacekeepers have failed to protect Armenian civilians in Karabakh. refugee crisis At the end of 2023.
Since then, bilateral relations have deteriorated and Armenian leaders have sought ways to reduce the country’s interests. economic dependence About Russia. Currently, about 40 percent of Armenia’s exports go to Russia. Meanwhile, the country is almost completely dependent on Russia for imports of essential goods such as grain and fuel.
“The dry port is trying to solve one of our country’s main problems: Armenia’s poor dependence on the world for logistics,” said Vahan Kerobyan, the country’s former economy minister. Said Reporters in December. “We’ve found a better way to solve the most vexing problem.”
Mr. Char Maras, who was hired by Yerevan as the person in charge of the project, Said “Dry ports operate like regular ports, using exactly the same documentation and infrastructure, only cargo being offloaded from trucks and wagons rather than ships.”
The potential economic benefits are substantial.Kerobian is Said The port could account for up to 3 percent of the country’s total GDP. create Thousands of jobs.
But before dry ports can begin to reap economic benefits, there are several hurdles to clear, the most difficult of which is financing.official admit The project can only move forward if it brings in a “major foreign investor” who can help meet the high asking price. 100 million dollars.
The construction schedule also raises questions.Dry port requires: 5 to 7 years The government says it will be fully operational. During that time, many things can happen that could change the viability of a dry port. For example, deteriorating relations between China and the United States and the European Union have led Western countries to seek new supply chains. Therefore, the East-West trade volume is shrink Questions have arisen whether there will be enough trade volume to benefit from Armenia’s dry ports in the next five years.The project could be the golden goose officials hope for, or it could be a big problem. white elephant Similar to similar developments in Central Asia.
“It’s an easy sell politically,” said urban and regional development expert Shant Karabajak. ”[But] This is not a “if you build it, they will come” scenario. You must anticipate that market conditions exist or will become meaningful. ”
Project officials say Gyumri is the best location in Armenia for such a development. “There is a high concentration of transportation in that area,” Maras said. Said Armenian news site CivilNet. ”[A] It has a main railway link to Tbilisi and the Black Sea, good road connections, a north-south road corridor, and an airport. ”
Other nodes in the trade corridor across Central Asia serve as a warning against the hype. For example, Khorgos Dry Port, which straddles the border between Kazakhstan and China, has been operating since its opening in 2015. did not act As a cash cow that Kazakhstan’s leaders expected.
In the case of Armenia, the limiting factor may be exactly what the dry port was designed to overcome: geography. “Personally, I would like to see Armenia flourish as a transportation hub. That would be a great return to the country’s traditional commercial role as a facilitator of trade.” said Karabajac. “But as has been the case for the past 4,000 years, geopolitics [is] It’s a big obstacle. ”
Without investor interest, talk of money cows and golden geese is meaningless. China has served as the go-to financier for regional infrastructure development over the past decade, but it is expected that Beijing’s The purse strings may get a little tighter. crater.
in statement In a letter to Armenpress in early February, the Chinese embassy in Yerevan was noncommittal about Pashinyan’s grand infrastructure plans, saying only that Beijing:[paying] Note. “
Written by Brawley Benson, via eurasianet.org
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