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From an investment standpoint, I like some of the plays in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Games will be held on Thursdays and Fridays at locations across the United States.
This is my list. And note that these selections are not directly based on team. These selections are made based on point spreads…
Morehead State +11.5 vs. Illinois State
The past three Big Ten Tournament champions have struggled early in the NCAA rounds. 2021 Illinois lost to No. 8 seed Loyola Chicago in the second round, 2022 Iowa State lost to No. 12 seed Richmond in the first round, and Purdue lost to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023. Ta. Big Ten teams seeded sixth or higher are 27-43-1. The only thing that gives me pause is that since 1998, he’s had double-digit endorsements in games, and his Big Ten coverage rate is 58%. But Morehead State has an explosive scorer in Riley Minks, who scored 18 points against Purdue earlier in the season. And if you’ve ever watched the University of Illinois, you know there are problems with that defense. He ranks 92nd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Illini have a great offense, but Morehead State should be able to offer some resistance. The Eagles are rated 9th in the nation in effective field goal percentage (according to KenPom), 30th in three-point shooting defense and 16th in two-point shooting defense. Illinois should win the game, but I think Morehead State will stay competitive and hang around late.
UAB +7 vs. San Diego State University
The Aztecs aren’t as good as the feisty underdog 2023 team that charged all the way to the title game before losing to mighty UConn. In the Mountain West title game, San Diego State lost to New Mexico State, trailing 11-2 in the final five and a half minutes. The Aztecs are one of the best-overseeded teams in this field. They are 13-19 against the spread this season, and 5-14 ATS on the road. SDSU ranks 307th in 3-point shooting percentage and 219th in effective field goal percentage. The UAB Blazers are on a five-game winning streak and have three very good guards in Eric Gaines and Efrem.
Johnson and Alejandro Vazquez.
Drake minus 1.5 vs. Washington State.
They play good defense up the wazoo, but Tucker DeVries will find a way to score points. And he’s a great all-round player.For reference, when the Bulldogs beat Nevada 72-53 in December, DeVries scored 25 points and averaged
Two wins over Indiana State, 28 points.
The Pac 12 hasn’t been a strong conference this season. The Missouri Valley was an underrated conference. The game will be played near Drake’s home base (Omaha), and the Missouri Valley Conference team is 18-9-1 against the spread (66.7%) in its last 28 games against Power 5 teams in the NCAA Tournament. has achieved results of. Washington State has upset Arizona twice this season…but with all due respect, it was more about Arizona playing poorly. Wash State has settled in with a 3-3 record in its last six games. Drake has a more experienced team that should benefit from the experience of playing in March Madness a year ago. DeVries scored a career-low 3 points and missed 12 of 13 shots from the floor as Drake lost a late lead to Miami (Fla.) in the first round of last year’s tournament. . Do you think the same thing will happen again? No, neither am I. A lot of money is flowing into Drake.
Akron + 12.5 vs. Creighton
Creighton should win, but by less than 12 1/2. The Blue Jays are very good, but they can be very vulnerable if they can’t make threes. The foundation of Creighton’s offense is the 3-point shot. Creighton has scored 67 points or less in six of its last 12 games on the road or in neutral court settings. And in away games, they average 19 fewer points per 100 possessions. Akron ranks 14th in the nation in three defense (per KenPom). When not playing at home, Creighton posted a 9-7 record while shooting just 33.7 percent from 3-point range. And Creighton has the lowest defensive turnover rate in the nation this season. I’m looking forward to the big man showdown between Akron’s Enrique Freeman and Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner. Akron plays fairly close to his home (Pittsburgh) and will have raucous fan support.
James Madison +4.5 vs. Wisconsin
James Madison looks like he’s going to be a troublemaker in this year’s tournament. The Dukes are 31-3 and haven’t lost since Jan. 27. They come into this game on a 13-game winning streak. If you look at this matchup on a points-per-possession basis, JMU ranks in the top 20 nationally in both points scored and points allowed per possession. The only other teams that can make the same claim are UConn, Auburn, and Arizona. Wishy’s offense scores 10 fewer points per 100 possessions when it’s not playing at home in Madison. The Badgers can get the win, but I can’t help but give him a 4.5.
Longwood +23.5 vs. Houston
No, I don’t think No. 1 seed Houston will be eliminated in the first round. However, the Cougars may have a hard time covering that huge point differential for a simple reason. Houston ranks 348th out of 361 Division I teams in total possessions per game, while Longwood ranks 271st. The slower pace will keep Longwood within 23.5 seconds. Or so I think.
Other plays I’m watching:
- TCU minus-3.5 vs. Utah State.
- Western Kentucky +14 vs. Marquette.
- McNeese +6 vs. Gonzaga
- Clemson +2.5 vs. New Mexico
- Western Kentucky +14 vs. Market
thank you for reading …
– Bernie
Bernie Mikulas
For the past 36 years, Bernie Miklas has entertained, educated and connected generations of St. Louis sports fans.
Barney is best known for his 26 years as the Post-Dispatch’s chief sports columnist, but he also writes for The Athletic, the Dallas Morning News, and the Baltimore News-American. Barney, who will be inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023, hosts radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C.
Barney, his wife Kirsten, and their cats live in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
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