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Three Michigan business ambassadors and thought leaders took to the stage Tuesday to address the challenge of retaining and attracting more workers to Michigan at the Detroit Economic Club’s annual Michigan Economic Outlook Conference. , shared some insight into what this year has in store.
The presentation began by revealing the club’s latest economic outlook from a survey of more than 1,000 businesspeople and associations throughout Michigan. According to the survey, 42% have a positive outlook for 2024, 30% have a negative outlook and the rest are unsure.
Gabriel Ehrlich, an economic forecaster at the University of Michigan and one of three invited speakers, said the survey’s tepid forecasts include predictions that the first half of 2024 will be tougher for Michigan businesses than the second half. He said this is in line with recent UM forecasts. When the Federal Reserve may move to lower interest rates.
The current rise in interest rates poses a challenge for Michigan’s “cyclical industries,” such as the auto industry, mortgage industry, and construction industry.
“The good news is that inflation is now coming down,” Ehrlich said. “This gives the Fed some room to pivot away from fighting inflation and toward supporting growth, which should provide some relief for Michigan. We expect growth to start recovering in the second half of this year and then into 2025. are doing” “
Other speakers were Quintin Messer, CEO of the Michigan Economic Development Corporation (MEDC), and Hilary Do, Michigan’s first MEDC Chief Growth Officer. The panel was moderated by Daniel Howes, business columnist and editor at The Detroit News. The event was held inside the Motor City Casino Hotel’s Soundboard.
Regarding Michigan’s workforce expansion challenges, Doe said a study commissioned by MEDC found that the fastest growing states have three things in common: It has a higher median population than Michigan, has more people with four-year college degrees, and is “more walkable and has better transportation options.” “It was a city that was driving growth.
“So we’re really focused on (research) recommendations to push to change these things because we think that will help,” she said.
more: Michigan economy: State should avoid recession, but inflation eats away wage growth
Doe said he believes there is no “silver bullet” solution to Michigan’s workforce and population growth challenges, but that we can all do a better job of highlighting Michigan’s strengths.
Messer also cited the potential power of a more positive stance, noting that some Michiganders tend to have an overly negative perception of the state.
“You can be relentlessly critical of a place, but you can also be eternally optimistic. I think we struggle with that sometimes. It’s possible to be both. ,” he said.
UM’s Ehrlich suggested that attracting more immigrants to Michigan would help.
“I hope we get better on the internal immigration front and don’t lose so many people to other states,” he said. We want to grow as our state leaders say they want to grow. ”
Looking beyond 2024, one speaker said the potential negative effects of climate change on southern and coastal states could result in an influx of new residents to Michigan at some point in the future.
Messer noted that some home insurance companies have recently stopped writing policies in several disaster-prone states, including California and Florida.
“People will start making rational decisions,” Messer said. “You may like the location, but you may not want to rebuild it multiple times and lose your entire net worth.”
Messer told reporters after the event that various researchers have focused on this topic, but there are few formal studies or predictions about when climate change will begin to reverse Michigan’s population migration. He said he didn’t know.
“You’re probably talking about the late 2030s, but definitely the 2040s,” he said.
“Many people are talking about 2050 as the year by which land will actually be lost. Certain areas of the United States that were once habitable will no longer be habitable. right.”
“I think we’ll be fine,” he added. “But some Americans in other parts of the country may not.”
Contact JC Reindl: 313-222-6631 or jcreindl@freepress.com. X Follow him at @jcreindl.
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