“Can China really become the world’s leading economic power?”

TA turning point in history has been set, the curves are set to cross, and China will once again become the world’s leading economic power, overtaking the United States. But when? In 2014, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) overtook that of the United States. This index compares the selection of common goods and services from each economy to establish what can be purchased and eliminates the influence of economies. exchange rate. But in the world of trade, it is nominal GDP, converted into dollars, that measures the real weight of an economy relative to other economies.

However, due to the slowdown in growth caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the ensuing real estate market crisis, China has found itself in a difficult situation with high youth unemployment, sluggish consumption among households worried about the future, and deflation. . Vulnerability does not prevent major advances such as electric vehicles. According to official statistics, the economic growth rate in 2023 was her 5.2%. According to the International Monetary Fund, GDP is expected to reach $18.56 trillion (approximately €17.26 trillion) by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy, which is emerging from inflation, remains at the cutting edge of technology and benefits from low-cost energy as one of the world’s leading oil and gas producers. In 2023, it recorded a growth of 2.5%, with GDP reaching $27.97 trillion. This is a far cry from around 2010, when China was posting 8% to 10% growth while the U.S. was in recession.

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So some people dare to ask. Will China really become the world’s leading economic power? They point to the example of Japan, which rose rapidly in the 1980s and then stagnated. For a long time, the consensus was that this curve would intersect from his 2020s to his 2030s. However, economists at Citibank had predicted that by the end of 2022, that time would be in the mid-2030s. Officials at the Japan Center for Economic Research, as well as economist Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queen’s College, Cambridge, believe that China will never exceed this level. financial timesThe Center for Economics and Business Research in London has calculated that China will actually become the world’s largest economy for 21 years, until the United States regains the lead in 2057 and is overtaken by India around 2081. Pessimists point to China’s difficulties. The transition to a true consumer society and the burden of aging, which has already reached its peak.

But do these questions have any meaning in the daily lives of Chinese people? GDP per capita certainly does. Currently it is $83,000 in the US and $13,000 in China (PPP $24,000). If “status” is important, it is first and foremost because the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has an agreement with the people, and as Xi Jinping reiterated at the beginning of his term, it is the By 2049, his anniversary, he will have built a “great modern socialist state,” a “strong” great power. The prospect of reaching the top of the podium is implicit.

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