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- Experts say the U.S. military is likely to intervene if China imposes a quarantine or blockade within China.
- A CSIS survey of 52 experts found that 63% believed the quarantine would trigger a U.S. response.
- Additionally, 79% of those surveyed said they were at least “somewhat confident” that the Pentagon would intervene during the lockdown.
A broad consensus among leading U.S. experts suggests that the standard for U.S. military intervention in Taiwan may not be an invasion from China, but rather smaller-scale actions such as isolation or blockade of Taiwan by China. It is said to have a high level of sexuality.
This is based on a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a diplomatic think tank based in Washington. The report was released on January 22nd.
For the report, titled “Survey of Experts: U.S. and Taiwanese Views on China’s Approach to Taiwan,” the Center surveyed academics, people with extensive experience in the U.S. government, and experts from think tanks who testified. It was announced that a survey was conducted among 52 US experts, including experts from Japan. in parliament.
About 63% of those surveyed said they were at least “somewhat confident” that the U.S. military would intervene if the Chinese government implemented a quarantine, according to the report.
The report said the quarantine would involve blocking the flow of goods to Taiwan through non-military means. One example is the use of a strict customs inspection system that throttles maritime traffic to the island’s ports.
Separately, 79% of experts said they were at least “somewhat confident” in their assessment that China’s naval blockade of the island would likely prompt U.S. military action. said.
The majority would rise to 88% if the blockade included an attack on Taiwan by the Chinese government, according to the report.
Almost all experts surveyed (96%) said that if China fully invaded Taiwan, the United States would also join the fight.
Quarantine and blockades, in particular, could be a precursor to a full-fledged amphibious invasion by the People’s Liberation Army, according to the CSIS report.
Experts aren’t sure if US allies will get involved
However, experts were less confident that US allies would join the conflict. Only 29% said a quarantine would lead to a U.S.-led multinational effort to defend Taiwan, while 33% said a non-attack blockade would lead to a coalition response.
Meanwhile, 60% of experts were confident that US allies would provide military support if China invaded the island.
CSIS also surveyed 35 Taiwanese experts and academics, who were less optimistic about U.S. intervention.
Forty percent expressed confidence that the Pentagon would support Taipei if China imposed a quarantine, and 60% said the U.S. military would support Taipei in response to a lockdown.
And 72% believe the US would intervene if China invaded.
When asked how long they thought Taiwan could deter China without the U.S. military, 90% of U.S. experts answered “more than two weeks to a month,” and 89% of Taiwanese experts said the same. showed the answer.
Six percent on both sides believe that Taiwan’s isolation will continue for at least a year.
According to CSIS, the experts were investigated from November to December 2023, at a time when U.S.-China relations were fraught with tension and President Joe Biden was preparing for the 2023 APEC summit. This was before his private meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in San Francisco.
The two leaders highlighted areas for cooperation in a rare positive sign for international relations, but tensions continue to rise as Taiwan, a key flashpoint in the U.S.-China war, elected William Lai Ching-toku of the Democratic Progressive Party as president. ing.
Lai’s party, under the outgoing government of Tsai Ing-wen, has long opposed Beijing’s attempts to pressure Taiwan to unify.
His political victory signals that the island will continue to resist and provoke the Chinese government. The Chinese government has simultaneously become increasingly hostile over the past decade under the Xi administration.
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