China stocks ready for bullish restart after strong tourism data

Chinese stocks look set for firmer gains as domestic traders return from the Lunar New Year break and strong travel and tourism data is expected to bring much-needed relief to one of the world’s worst-performing major markets. Looks like it’s ready.

With trading in mainland China closed from February 9 to 16, investors are likely to take cues from gains in offshore-listed Chinese stocks. Hong Kong stocks have risen nearly 5% since trading resumed on Wednesday, and the Nasdaq Gold Dragon China Index has gained 4.3% for the week, underscoring the potential for a rebound in onshore stocks.

Spending patterns on one of China’s most important holidays suggest that consumption is picking up even as the broader economy struggles with deflation and a real estate crisis. Market watchers are hoping the series of positive data will boost stocks, at least in the short term, and help authorities work to restore investor confidence.

However, major questions remain about the sustainability of the recovery in the face of a severe economic crisis.

Linda Lam, head of North Asia equity advisory at Union Bancare Privy, said: “From holiday hotel sales to Macau visitor numbers, early readings from Lunar New Year data are encouraging for hospitality industries. “This shows that there are some bright spots.” “A-shares should start even more bullish as the stock price recovery continues on the back of state aid,” he said, referring to mainland-traded Chinese stocks.

A range of Chinese stocks in Hong Kong soared on holiday data showing rail travel rose 61% year-on-year during the city’s widespread outbreak of the coronavirus. Online hotel booking and delivery giant Meituan also posted strong profits.

Macau reported more than 1 million tourists in the first six days of the holiday, the highest since 2017, when daily data for the peak season was available, and more tourists from the mainland. Customers account for 77% of the total.

China Tourism Group’s duty-free stores rose more than 15% in three trading sessions after the Hong Kong holiday, while travel platform Trip.com Group rose 7%. Meituan and e-commerce giant Jingdong each rose more than 10%.

Options data suggests traders are turning more bullish. The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index’s 25 delta skew, which measures the difference between investors’ demand for puts and calls, currently favors calls on contracts expiring in March.

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Authorities sought to stem the stock market slide ahead of the holidays, increasing the amount of state-funded purchases, a series of regulatory adjustments to ease selling pressure, and an abrupt change in the head of the securities regulator. The move helped the benchmark CSI300 index rebound from a five-year low, rising 5.8% in the week before the holidays.

The continued rise is critical for the world’s second-largest market, which has fallen out of favor with investors after years of losses. Asset managers around the world are exiting Chinese stocks as geopolitical tensions and the Chinese government’s tight grip on the private sector bring the country’s tech giants to a standstill.

In addition to lower reserve requirements, traders are hoping for further policy support across monetary and fiscal sectors. It will be interesting to see if there are any signs of stimulus ahead of the country’s main annual meeting in March, when leaders will announce economic growth and development targets.

The People’s Bank of China on Sunday kept its key interest rate unchanged to prevent large swings in the yuan while assessing the impact of recent support measures.

The People’s Bank of China kept its one-year policy lending rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected by most economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

“Funds with light positioning heading into the holiday season will be better positioned due to improved liquidity after RRR cuts, new head of China Securities Regulatory Commission, and strong China Securities Regulatory Commission spending. They may be more aggressive in adding A shares now that it’s the Spring Festival holiday,” said Shen Meng, a director at Shanson & Company in Beijing.

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The CSI 300 gauge has lost more than 40 percent of its value since its peak in 2021, hit by the country’s strict coronavirus measures, regulatory crackdowns, uneven economic recovery and geopolitical tensions. Ta.

Beyond the possibility of a short-term rebound, deep doubts persist about the market’s long-term outlook. Shorting Chinese stocks is becoming even more popular, making it the second-busiest trade in recent months, according to a new Bank of America survey of global asset managers. has become clear. A third of respondents said they would increase their allocation if more aggressive fiscal policy was expected to support the real estate sector.

“In the short term, national team buying will remain a key factor supporting the Chinese market,” said Daisy Li, a fund manager at EFG Asset Management. “The next three to six months will depend on what targets China sets for economic growth and fiscal deficit this year.”