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CLarsons Research has published a review of the 2003 global shipbuilding market. Summarizing the review, Steve Gordon, Managing Director at Clarksons Research, commented:
“2023 was a year of production recovery, rising prices and good order flow for the global shipbuilding industry. At the regional level, China produced 50% of shipyard output and ordered The 2024 delivery profile is dominated by containers and gas, while alternative fuels now account for nearly 50% of order book tonnage. The composition leans towards tankers and bulkers. Key data points include:
- Global shipyard production will increase by 10% year-on-year to 35 million CGT in 2023, with China supplying 50% of its production in CGT for the first time (South Korea 26% and Japan 14%).
- China leads the market share in bulkers, tankers, and containers, and South Korea leads in LNG.
- New order flow is reported to be strong, amounting to over 41.7 million CGT out of $115 billion (CGT and value decreased, DWT and GT increased).
Orders totaled 124 million CGT, an increase of only 4% year-on-year, totaling $367 billion, with 50% of orders on a tonnage basis being for alternative fuels, with a strong front yard coverage rate of approximately 3.5 years.
The number of active shipyards (buildings over 20,000 deadweight tons) has further decreased, and shipyard production capacity has been reduced by up to 35% during peak production.
As fleets age and emissions regulations accelerate, basic fleet renewal requirements remain in place.
New construction prices rose 10% through 2023, within 7% of peak prices in 2008, but fell 35% on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Greek shipping companies invested in newbuildings up 60% year-on-year ($18 billion, the highest investment in Greece since 2013 in terms of weight), and for the first time since 2018, European shipowners invested more than Asia I did it. ”
Product composition: tanker increase
Order flow in 2023 was generally positive (CGT and value down, DWT and GT up), with orders for tankers (+222% DWT, albeit on a low basis) and bulk carriers (+12% DWT). ) has increased. ).
Containership orders fell by 43% on a TEU basis, but this remains historically high, supported by liner carriers’ continued investment in green fleet renewal programs. (83% of ordered capacity was from alternative fuels). This year has been a record year for car carrier orders ($8.1 billion for 80 vessels, 79% for alternative fuels, rising to 98% when “ready” orders are included), as well as gas orders. It performed well (e.g. VLGC#68, LNG66). There is also some volume in the small ship market (short sea/MPP, offshore wind, ferries, etc.) (and includes innovative alternative fuels/EST), and as the cruise market recovers, some large ship projects are being discussed. started. Reflecting the increase in tanker orders, Greek investors committed over 60% more newbuild investment (highest by weight since 2013), and for the first time since 2018 European owners invested more than Asia. Committed.
Fleet updates:
Go green
Uncertainty over fuel choices and ‘grievances’ over price levels (price levels have reached their highest level since their peak in 2008, and our index is currently within 7%, adjusted for inflation) (still down about 35% on a base basis) remains in place. However, good cash flow across shipping (helped by further ‘disruption’) and underlying building fleet renewal requirements (an aging fleet, accelerating emissions regulations, and an increase in tonnage of 30% % are rated D or E under CII), we expect that In 2024*, we expect our new orders for shipbuilding and marine equipment to be strong again.
Source: Clarksons
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