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- Investors traded cautiously on Tuesday ahead of the release of January inflation data.
- Wall Street expects the consumer price index to fall below 3% for the first time in more than two years.
- Stock futures fell slightly, and the 10-year Treasury yield and dollar index were barely moving.
A cautious mood prevailed in markets on Tuesday as investors anxiously awaited the release of US inflation data for January.
U.S. stock futures were in the red after 5 a.m. Eastern time. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.2%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was little changed at 4.18%, while the U.S. dollar index rose about 0.1%.
Wall Street expects the consumer price index (CPI) to hit 2.9%, falling below 3% for the first time since March 2021.
With annualized inflation approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the U.S. central bank could cut interest rates in the coming months, easing pressure on the economy. Recession risk may be reduced.
The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate from near zero to over 5% within 18 months to curb inflation, but inflation rose to 9.1% (the highest in 40 years) in the summer of 2022.
“US headline inflation is expected to fall below 3% in January,” Swissquote Bank senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said in a morning note.
“A set of weaker-than-expected indicators is likely to push expectations for a May rate cut and push the dollar index below its 100-day moving average, supporting stock prices.” “However, an unwelcome upside surprise will further reduce May expectations and shift focus to June.”
Several big-name companies are scheduled to release their fourth quarter earnings reports today, including Airbnb, Shopify, and Coca-Cola.
Investors can look forward to more data releases this week. Initial unemployment claims, retail sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey are all scheduled for Thursday.
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