If Biden fails to deter Iran, there is a risk of World War III in the Middle East.

Only now, in retrospect, can we see how Europe went half-asleep into World War I. At the time, no one could have predicted how a localized regional conflict would lead to what was then the most devastating conflict in human history. .

More than a century later, the United States is sleepwalking toward a full-scale global war, as the risk of regional wars metastasizing into broader wars continues to grow exponentially.

To put it another way, it has been more than three months since Hamas invaded Israel, killing approximately 1,200 people and abducting more than 200 hostages, leading to Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza, and the world is in the midst of a second wave. We are on the precipice of a world war.

To that end, if the United States wants to avoid such a catastrophic scenario, it needs insight not only into the growing risks, but also who its adversaries are and their intentions. Above all, we must be determined to prevent the conflict between Israel and Hamas from escalating further.

After the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas, President Biden made it clear that he had two priorities. One is to contain the fighting in the Gaza Strip and prevent Iran from taking advantage of the chaos, either by attacking Israel directly or by releasing its Hezbollah and Houthi proxies. To attack Israeli or American targets.

To achieve his goals, Biden – spectacularly – ordered the largest show of force in support of Israel since 1973, sending two carrier strike groups to the region and targeting Iran and Hezbollah. He issued a strong warning not to intervene.

Unfortunately, Mr. Biden’s efforts have failed on both fronts, with fighting spreading from Gaza to the Red Sea, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, with U.S. forces coming under attack in the latter two countries.

Moreover, Iran is apparently undaunted and feels little pressure to rein in its proxies.

Hezbollah carries out near-daily rocket and missile attacks against Israel, and its leader Hassan Nasrallah felt emboldened enough to threaten the United States. saying In regional wars,[U.S.] There will be sacrifices in profits and troops,” he added, adding assurances that America’s “ships and air force will pay a heavy price.”

Yemen’s Houthis, another Iranian proxy, have targeted U.S. and allied naval vessels as well as commercial cargo ships, effectively shutting down the Red Sea, on which 10 to 15 percent of global commerce depends.

Mr. Biden’s failure to deter Iran, the mastermind behind virtually all conflicts in the region, now leads to direct U.S. involvement, increasing the risk of escalating wars in the Middle East.

With American planes and ships currently conducting hundreds of airstrikes across Yemen, any incident could spark a global war involving Iran and potentially its ally Russia. There is.

To be absolutely clear, this is not to say that Biden should pre-emptively strike Iran to deter the administration. But that means that there appears to be a total lack of understanding of the risks of escalating war, and of strategies to avoid it.

As we wrote on this page just a few weeks ago, “Without a strong and determined show of force against Iran and its terrorist allies, the risk of all-out war increases significantly.” At the Head of this Serpent These risks will continue to grow as long as an Iranian feels free to sow chaos without even the credible threat of an overwhelming American response.

If that’s true, CENTCOM likewise presents targets that could “inflict real pain” and “send a message” to Iran, as former U.S. Central Command spokesman Joe Buccino said. However, this did not actually happen. If rejected by the White House, Biden will ignore his responsibility to protect America’s national security in favor of avoiding escalation at all costs, a policy doomed to failure. .

Also worth noting is that Biden’s shift in attitude toward Israel, at least in public, certainly contributes to Iran’s calculation that the United States will not defend the Jewish state for much longer. be. Biden initially expressed full support for Israel’s military effort against Hamas, but his administration has begun to change its stance, perhaps in response to pressure on him from the left of his party.

Indeed, in recent weeks, Washington has called on Jerusalem to allow more aid to Gaza, criticized Israel’s approach to the war, and pressured Israel to accept a Palestinian state once the war ends. , openly at odds with Israel. October 7th is still burned into the nation’s memory.

Political reasons (war is sure to raise oil prices in an election year, Biden’s approach to Israel is reducing support from the left), or Biden wants to reach a diplomatic deal with Iran. Whether due to its unbridled desires, the regime has failed to hold Iran accountable to its proxies, resulting in the dangerous scenario we now find ourselves in.

In many ways, President Biden’s position is strikingly similar to President Nixon’s position in 1973. At that time, as now, Arab armies were attacking Israel by surprise, and President Nixon, fearing external intervention, put US nuclear forces on high alert. , bringing the world disturbingly close to nuclear Armageddon.

The Russian government’s recognition that the United States was prepared to commit the full force of its military to protect its ally Israel played a key role in ending the war and ensuring that nuclear weapons were not used despite the threat. .

Fifty years later, the Soviet Union was replaced by an Iranian-led bloc of terrorist groups and rogue states, and with it their messianic and ideological efforts to destroy Israel and America. We cannot afford to appear afraid to confront our enemies if we want to frustrate their plans and avoid getting drawn into a war that the United States definitely does not want.

Ultimately, fear of direct conflict with the United States is the only thing that will force Iran to withdraw, thereby lowering the risk that the current war between Israel and Hamas will escalate into a broader war involving the entire planet. Become.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an advisor to President Clinton and Michael Bloomberg’s 2020 presidential campaign. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China are rising, and America is retreating. ” Saul Mangel is a senior strategist at Shane Cooperman Research.