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The world’s most populous Muslim-majority country has spent 25 years consolidating its democracy after spending much of the 20th century under colonial rule and then dictatorship. Elections have been largely free and fair, and the transition of power has been peaceful and orderly. In a country of astonishing size and diversity, Indonesia’s democratic success stands out in comparison to other countries in the developing world, especially the Muslim-majority population whose democratic aspirations have long been dashed by strongmen and generals. It has become a model for countless other countries in the sect.
However, in an era of global democratic recession, there are growing concerns about Indonesia’s decline and regression. Outgoing President Joko Widodo is completing his second term as one of the most popular elected leaders on the world stage, backed by key infrastructure, public services and a significant economic boom. This is backed by years of investment in social safety nets against a backdrop of Constitutional provisions prevent Widodo from seeking a third term, but he has been prominently pushing Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, a former rival of Widodo and a longtime veteran of Indonesian politics, to continue in the role.
“Mr Widodo’s critics have been pressuring the Constitutional Court to change the eligibility requirements for presidential candidates so that his son Gibran Rakabumin Raka, 36, can be Prabowo’s running mate. ” explained colleagues Rebecca Tan and Winda Charmila. “They also allege that Mr. Widodo is using his personal political influence and executive authority to disrupt the campaigns of other candidates. Mr. Widodo and Mr. Prabowo. dismissed these charges.”
Prabowo is the overwhelming front-runner, a situation that would have seemed impossible not too long ago. He is a vestige of the country’s early political years under the Suharto military dictatorship, when as a military leader he ordered the kidnapping of democracy activists and committed crimes such as the massacre of independence fighters in East Timor. He directed a brutal operation. Prabowo’s performance led to his dishonorable discharge from the military in 1998 and a ban on his visa to enter the United States, which is believed to have been lifted after he became defense minister.
Mr. Prabowo reinvented himself as a nationalist politician and competed with Mr. Widodo in the last election, before failing to defeat Mr. Widodo in 2019 and joining the cabinet of a charismatic populist government. During this election campaign, he has emphasized the image of his grandfather as soft and cuddly while performing cheeky dance moves. It’s aimed at social media platforms like TikTok, which are used by a wide swath of Indonesia’s large electorate. More than 50 percent of Indonesia’s voters are under the age of 40, with limited memory of the country’s pre-democratic era.
Mr. Widodo came to power as a reformist outsider from a working-class background, stripped of the privileges and pedigree afforded to figures like Mr. Prabowo from the country’s dynastic political elite. But he led a scenario in which his brother-in-law, as a Supreme Court judge, pushed through a court ruling that would allow his son to run as Prabowo’s running mate in this election. Prabowo, who is competing with former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta governor Anyes Baswedan, could end up not only continuing Widodo’s legacy but building his own dynasty. There is.
Analysts have warned that Indonesia’s democracy could suffer even more serious damage under Widodo’s watch. “He has weakened the country’s independent anti-corruption commission, curtailed freedom of expression, criminalized sex outside of marriage, and overhauled the criminal code to give the government broad and vague powers to prosecute critics and dissidents. Signed,” Gordon LaForge of the New Paper pointed out. American think tank. “He waived patronage, was criticized for interfering in the internal affairs of rival parties, and allowed the military to play a greater role in civilian life.”
“What we are seeing is a pretty brazen attack on democratic norms and institutions,” Madeh Supriyatma, a visiting researcher at the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, told colleagues. .
Given Indonesia’s importance on the world stage, the stakes in Indonesia’s elections are high. The company is a supplier of numerous resources essential to the digital age, including nickel. It is also an emerging power in Asia that is confronting the conflict between the United States and China that is erupting in the 21st century.
In that regard, Widodo has charted a complicated middle ground. Joshua Kurlanczyk of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote that he “probably more aggressively cultivated Chinese aid and investment than any other leader of Southeast Asia’s large economies.” “But at the same time, he and his military advisers have become increasingly concerned about Chinese activities in Indonesian waters in recent years, so he has also expanded defense cooperation with the United States.”
Regardless of the outcome of the election, what happens next will have a major impact. “Indonesia, a huge multi-ethnic country whose borders were arbitrarily set by Dutch colonialism, presents a wide canvas on which to project a variety of hopes and anxieties,” says Ben, author of a book about the outgoing president. Brand wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine. “Its political development can be seen as a sign of democratic consolidation, as a harbinger of global democratic backsliding, as a beacon of tolerance and economic progress, or as an example of the dangers posed by the rise of Islamic extremism and protectionism. , are viewed in various ways.”
“While it may not resemble the Western vision of liberal democracy, the battle to shape the future of our political system will not end after the election,” he concluded.
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