Men’s 50 Free is Loaded, Men’s 100 Free is Stretching for Finalists

2024 WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

• February 11th – February 18th (pool swimming)
• Doha, Qatar
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central

In the strangest World Championships in several generations, we’re going to do our best to pick the medalists and finalists for the 2024 World Championships. It’s going to be weird. There are going to be swimmers in finals that most of us have never heard of. We’re going to miss someone obvious who we didn’t expect to race. The list at the top is as valuable as the list at the bottom. Let us know in the comments, and we reserve the right to update picks if y’all inform us of an entry we missed!

The men’s sprint freestyles are a split bag. In the 50 free, three of the top four finishers from last year’s World Championships, including the rejuvenated Australian Cam McEvoy, the 2022 World Champion Ben Proud, and a 50-focused Isaac Cooper.

In the 100 free, on the other hand, none of last year’s medalists are returning, nor is the World Record holder and 2022 World Champion David Popovici or the 2021 Olympic champion Caeleb Dressel.

In a way, this is a representation for the divergence we’ve seen the last few years in the 50 and 100 free. Many of the best 100 freestylers in the world (Popovici, Hwang, Nemeth, Richards, Grousset) aren’t going after the 50, instead focusing on other races like the 200 free or 200 fly. The main contenders in the 50 at Worlds, meanwhile, are fairly specialized. McEvoy, Proud, Cooper, Gkolomeev, Deplano – none of them are even attempting the 100 free in Doha.

50 Free in Focus

The field:

On paper, McEvoy is a huge favorite in this race. He had a bounceback 2023 with a non-traditional training path and it paid off huge with the 4th-best performance in swimming history.

His low-volume approach bodes well for the ability to be fast in both February and again in June and again in July, but so too does that of Britain’s Ben Proud, who actually showed that in 2022 when he went 21.4-21.4-21.3 at Worlds, Euros, and Commonwealth Games.

While he was only 21.58 in 2023, he has been so consistently in the 21-lows that it feels like he’s not done yet. A 21.77 at the World Cup in Budapest backs that up. Incidentally, he’s about 5 months younger than McEvoy, though McEvoy’s extended break from swimming means probably less tread on the tires.

Those are the two clear-and-away front-runners in this race. Behind that, things get very interesting. Isaac Cooper is focusing on 50 meter races at Worlds, entered in the 50 free, 50 fly, and 50 back, but says that’s just a step on his way to returning to the 100s at the Olympic Games. Will that focus on 50s help him, hurt him, or otherwise?

He is the youngest contender here, just turning 20 earlier this month, though not the only young contender. Ukraine’s Vladyslav Bukhov, who tied for 9th at Worlds last year, is only 21. A 2019 World Junior champion, he bounced back after not going best times in 2022 amid his country’s invasion by Russia and having to travel to different training locations. He’s feeling more-and-more like a 50 specialist, so if he hones in on that, a medal is within reach here.

He’s been stable on a training camp in Loret del Mar, Spain along with several other members of the Ukrainian National Team for a few months training under Andrii Khloptsov.

On the other end of the spectrum is Greece’s Kristian Gkolomeev, the oldest of the contenders who will turn 31 in July. His times have been on a steady decline for the last few years, with his 21.82 at Worlds being slower than he was in 2022, 2021, 2019, or 2018 (where he peaked at 21.44).

One of his young countrymen, on the other hand, has been a revelation. Stergios-Marios Bilas swam only the 50 fly at Worlds last year (17th – 23.39), but at the European U23 Championships broke through with a 21.83 in the 50 free. His best entering the year was 22.62, and his best outside of that meet was a 22.37 done in December, so he’s very boom-or-bust right now. He can probably qualify for the Olympics at this meet and not worry about domestic qualifying, though, so he’s motivated to be ‘on’ for this World Championships.

The Netherlands’ Kenzo Simons was 21.81/21.87/21.91 last year before Worlds, but only 21.92 at Worlds. His ability to swim well early in the year could pay off at this uniquely-timed World Championship meet, and at only 22 he’s still on the younger end of this field. He needs to start making 21s a habit if he wants to battle for medals in Paris, and this is a great chance to start that.

That’s a similar story to Diogo Ribeiro, who was 21.87 in March last year but just 22.02 at Worlds. He doesn’t have a ton of pressure or competition to qualify for Worlds in the 50, and in the Olympic year really has to find his Olympic events (the 50 fly is his best race).

An interesting case here is Italy’s Leonardo Deplano. At 24, he’s neither young or a veteran by swimming standards. As he enters his physical prime, he’s had two good years, including a quiet 21.60 in 2022 (if there is such a thing). He didn’t go a best time in long course last year, but did in short course in 21.05.

I think he’s the darkhorse here, because based on best time he should be a medalist.

Nicholas Lia is another interesting case. After not going a best time in the 50 free in 2022, he went the 7 fastest times of his career in 2023, but that only amounted to a total of a .16 second improvement. Maybe a sign that he’s on the edge of a cliff?

There are a lot of other great names in this field who didn’t make semi-finals at Worlds. US-trained short course stars Matt King (Coley Stickels) and Bjorn Seeliger (Dave Durden) are training with two very successful sprint coaches who know how to prepare swimmers for long course. King, for his part, swam 22.12 at the January Pro Swim and 21.80 at US Nationals, though he has to be prepared for US Trials in June to make the Olympic Team.

China’s Pan Zhanle, last year’s breakout star in the 100 free, was 21.92 at the Asian Games in the 50 free last year, but didn’t swim the race at Worlds. While he’s super-talented, given how good he was in the 100 at that meet, it doesn’t seem like the 50 is as good of a race for him as the 200. Also from Asia, Hong Kong’s Ian Ho had a good year taking silver in the 50 free at the Asian Games in 21.87, behind South Korea’s Ji Yu-Chan in 21.72. South Korea is on-fire right now, so it’s easy to get behind Ji.

Guys who have been there before, but not as much recently, include Thom de Boer of the Netherlands (22.02 last year, 21.58 best) and Shinri Shioura of Japan (22.22 last year, 21.67 best).

The wildcard is American Michael Andrew. He was the third-fastest American last year in 21.64, and sixth-best in the world. He’s chasing history by entering all four 50s at Worlds with a chance to medal, or even win, all of them, but in an Olympic year, this 50 free is the one that counts the most.

He was 21.87 in Knoxville, which is a great sign. He was 21.80 at US Open and 21.85 at the World Cup in Budapest, which are even better signs. Andrew has been on a roller coaster for most of his senior career, but he’s still a real Olympic medal contender in this 50 free.

We also can’t look past Trinidad & Tobago’s Dylan Carter, who in December at 27 years old at the T&T National Championships swam a lifetime best of 21.69 in clean water. He did miss the semis at last year’s World Championships (losing a swimoff to Mikel Schreuders), but he’s come back with a vengeance since then.

The Picks:

Men’s 100 Free

The men’s 100 free feels like an almost-entirely different field than the 50. While many of China’s superstars are bypassing these World Championships, Pan Zhanle will race to keep the momentum going after an unbelievable Asian Championships in September. There he swam 46.97 in the 100 free to become the 5th man to ever go under 47 seconds in the 100 free.

But perhaps the better data point to look at for this meet is what he did at the World Championships a few months prior – that might be the better analogy for these World Championships. Unlike, say, Qin Haiyang, Pan was significantly better at the singular meet (Asian Games) than he was at the rest.

And still at the World Championships he swam 47.43, which was at the time the Asian Record.

With all due respect to Richards, I think Pan is currently the class of this field. He’s still only 19 (and will be at the Olympics), and is only a month older than David Popovici, the World Record holder.

Pan for the win.

But this is still a crucial stepping-stone for Richards, who has a pretty good gap to the rest of the field.

The defending World Champion in the 200 free, Richards is one of a few Brits who are just going to pop in to the meet for a couple of swims before resuming training. The focus is on getting the 400 free relay qualified after it was disqualified in prelims at Worlds last year. These guys don’t need to be in full-taper to do that – a 3:14.00 would pretty-safely get them in, which means averaging 48.5s. For this relay’s potential, that basically takes “suit up and don’t lift weights the day before.”

Richards is #2 in this field based on talent, but when picking, we have to take circumstance into question. None-the-less, he could make a big statement with a 47-anything in this race.

The only other swimmers in this field who are really in that same atmosphere are Hwang Sun-Woo of South Korea, who swam 47.56 at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics when he was only 18, and Alessandro Miressi, who swam 47.45 at the 2021 European Championships and 47.46 at the Tokyo Olympics. Neither guy was as good last year, though Miressi’s 47.54 in prelims at Worlds was good before a bust in Semis.

On paper, it feels like Miressi and Richards have the toughest domestic pathways to Olympic qualifying in this event and therefore the least motivation to be more than a drop-taper at these Worlds. That being said, Miressi is pretty good at swimming fast many times a year, so I’ll give him the edge for now.

Beyond that, it’s kind of a crapshoot. How much work has Ribeiro put in to his 100 free? He was a 48.67 at the Euro meet last weekend. Japan’s Katsuhiro Matsumoto was 48.62 a week earlier at the Kosuke Kitajima Cup.

Nandor Nemeth had a breakthrough year last year, and carried that to Euro SC in December, but doesn’t have a great history of swimming fast in-season. On talent alone, though, he’s probably in the final.

A darkhorse I like in this field is Cameron Gray from New Zealand. Now 20, at Worlds last year he finished 19th in 48.43 to cap a big breakout season, though a 50.17 in his last big outing in November is not great. Another I like is Matt King from the USA, who at times in his career has been better in the 50 and at other times is better in the 100. A 47.93 at US Nationals in July is a good sign for him, and he’s a guy who has a lot to prove at this meet after his decision to leave Virginia to train with Stickels. He was a relay swimmer for the US at Worlds, and that’s his best path to the Olympic team as well (depending on where Caeleb Dressel is at).

The Australian pair are interesting as well. Jack Cartwright, who hasn’t been a best time in the 100 free since he was 18 in 2017 (47.97) was 48.21 at last year’s Australian Trials. Kai Taylor is only 20 and had a 48.41 at last year’s Australian Swimming Championships in April, but was only 49.32 at the Australian Swimming Trials in June.

More recently, at the Queensland Championships, Taylor was 48.83 and Cartwright was 49.56. Neither time is earth-shattering, but both have finals potential in this race. I suspect both will be conservative with any rest for this meet, though, given the competition to make the Australian Olympic Team in June and the fact that neither has been great in this event on two tapers.

The Picks: