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Municipal stocks were flat to weak on Thursday ahead of a small new issuance calendar while inflows into municipal bond mutual funds increased. U.S. Treasury yields rose for the first time in a decade, and stock markets ended mixed.
LSEG Lipper reported $447 million in inflows for the week ending Wednesday, following $63.8 million in inflows the previous week.
Flows into high-yield municipal bond funds were $246 million, compared to $180.4 million last week, marking the sector’s 12th consecutive week of positive inflows.
Mr. Muniz suffered losses throughout this week.
Barclays strategists said in their weekly report that Refinitiv MMD yields have risen 3-17 basis points this week, with the MMD/UST ratio continuing to “gradually rise.”
The Treasury-to-Treasury ratio on Thursday for two-years was 64%, three-years 63%, five-years 60%, 10-years 60% and 30-years 85%, the paper said. Refinitiv Municipal Market Data values as of 1:00 PM ET. ICE Data Services was 65% two years, 64% three years, 62% five years, 61% 10 years, and 83% 30 years as of 3 p.m.
Barclays strategists said the small yield adjustment was likely due to oversupply and “slightly thin trading” during the holiday-shortened week.
“Despite this week’s price action, we are not overly concerned and would not be surprised if some of the losses are reversed next week as investors return from vacation,” they said.
“As of the end of the month, there is a disconnect between short-term and long-term Municurve. Bonds with maturities of five years or less are being sold at some concessions, but long-term bonds with maturities of 10 years or more continue to be heavily bid. “We have a strong presence,” said Kim Ol-sang, senior vice president. I trade with FHN Financial.
He said the recent correction “brings the 1-30 MMD curve to its flattest level this year at 49 basis points (down from its 78 basis point slope since the beginning of the year).”
Part of the difference is due to “correcting lower relative values from 2025 to 2029 and increasing allocations to long-term structures,” she laments.
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“While these anomalies may spread to the one-year fixed maturity range, we do not expect them to persist for long as stocks from high-quality, highly specialized states command wider spreads,” he said. “
At the long end of the curve, he said, “we’re seeing the opposite effect on large allocations.”
Orsan said some new stocks were traded on syndicate breaks that lowered yields.
“$200 million of California GO 5 due 2053 issued at 3.85% re-traded at a tight break of 3.78%,” he said.
On the other hand, “Washington GO5 with an initial yield of 3.16% due in 2038 has broken to 3.12% on the bid side, but still maintains an attractive spread of +26/MMD,” he said.
Mr. Orsan said that in April, investors will hope that there will be no “April Fool’s Day” event due to a potential mismatch between redemptions and supply.
Calls and maturities are expected to be $21 billion, while issuance is expected to exceed $30 billion based on April’s 10-year supply average of $34 billion, according to CreditSights.
Orsan noted that since 2014, half of the months have seen negative returns, with the average return for 50% being -0.1%.
New calendar will be released
Next week’s issuance volume will decline, with an estimated new issuance calendar of $3.921 billion, with $2.883 billion in negotiated deals and $1.037 billion in ongoing competitive deals.
The negotiation calendar is led by a $918 million lease revenue bond from the California Public Utilities Commission, followed by a $500 million taxable corporation CUSIP from Cornell University.
Anne Arundel County, Maryland leads the competitive calendar with $332 million in GO over 4 series.
AAA scale
The Refinitiv MMD size saw a reduction in short-term interest rates, with the one-year at 3.24% (+5) and the two-year at 2.97% (+3). As of 1 p.m., the 5-year bond is 2.54% (poo), the 10-year bond is 2.51% (poo), and the 30-year bond is 3.68% (poo).
The ICE AAA yield curve was little changed, at 3.23% (+`) in 2025 and 2.98% (+1) in 2026. The 5-year was 2.59% (+1) and the 10-year was 2.54% (unch). ), the 30-year was 3.62% (poo) as of 3 p.m.
S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Municipal Curve has lowered short-term interest rates. The one-year interest rate was 3.26% (+5) in 2025 and 3.00% (+5) in 2026. The five-year interest rate was 2.57% (unch). , the 10-year yield was 2.54% (poop) and the 30-year yield was 3.66% (poop), according to a reading at 3 p.m.
Bloomberg BVAL was little changed, at 3.19% (+1) in 2025 and 2.98% (+1) in 2026. The 5-year was 2.50% (unch), the 10-year was 2.50% (unch), and the 30-year was 2.50% (unch). 3.67% (poo) at 3pm
U.S. Treasuries have been in the doldrums for a decade.
The 2-year UST yield was 4.621% (+5), the 3-year yield was 4.410% (+5), the 5-year yield was 4.213% (+3), and the 10-year yield was 4.201% (+1). At the closing price, the 20-year bond was 4.453% (flat) and the 30-year bond was 4.344% (-1).
Future major:
The California Public Utilities Commission (Aa3/A+/AA-/) will set the price of the Department of General Services Mei Lee State Building Complex Lease Revenue Bond on Thursday at $918,295,000. The bonds consist of $687.42 million tax-exempt, 2024 Series A, Serial. 2034-2044, term of office 2049. Taxable amount is $230,875,000, 2024 Series B, Serials 2025-2034. Barclays.
Cornell University on Thursday plans to price its taxable corporation CUSIP, Series 2024B, at $500 million. Goldman Sachs. The university is also considering issuing $610 million in tax-exempt revenue bonds, Series 2024A, through the New York State Residence Hall Authority.
The State Board of Finance (/BBB+//) on Wednesday plans to price the Wheeling Power Company project’s taxable utility refundable revenue bonds, series 2024A, term 2034, at $450 million. KeyBanc Capital Markets.
New York City Housing Development Authority (Aa2///) announced on Thursday that it will issue $300 million in sustainable development multifamily income bonds, consisting of $133,415,000 in Series A-1 and $189,920,000 in Series A-2. The price is expected to be set at $23,335,000. JP Morgan.
Washington State North Shore School District No. 417 (Aaa///) will price its 2024 series of unrestricted general tax liability and refund bonds on Tuesday at $242,505,000. Piper Sandler.
Chicago (/A+/A+/AA-/) on Wednesday plans to price $223.75 million in second-lien wastewater transmission revenue refinancing bonds, Series 2024A, Series 2025-2044. Loop Capital Market.
The North Carolina Turnpike Authority (Aa1//AA+/) on Thursday plans to price the Monroe Expressway System State Appropriations and Revenue Repayment Bonds (Series 2024, Series 2025-2041) at $184.07 million. Bohua Securities. A portion of the proceeds will be used to reimburse authorities.
The Trinity River Authority of Texas (/AAA/AAA/) on Tuesday plans to price $162.22 million on Regional Wastewater System Revenue Improvement and Redemption Bonds, Series 2024, Series 2024-2044. Wells Fargo.
Colorado Bridge and Tunnel Enterprises (A2/A-//) plans to price $150 million of senior infrastructure revenue bonds, Series 2024A, Series 2041-2044, term 2049, 2054, on Tuesday. is. BofA Securities.
The Pennsylvania Higher Education Assistance Agency announced Thursday that it has issued $146.41 million in tax-exempt AMT fixed rate education loan revenue bonds, consisting of $109.41 million in senior notes Series 2024-1A and $37 million in subordinated notes Series 2024-1C. We plan to set the price. . RBC Capital Markets.
The Rhode Island Health Education Building Authority (A3/A-//) on Tuesday priced the Higher Education Facilities Revenue Bonds (Series 2024, Series 2025-2045, Term 2048) issued by Bryant University at $132,665,000. We are planning to set it up. Barclays.
California Chino Valley Unified School District (Aa2/AA-//) is set to price $117.405 million on Wednesday, including $64.8 million in capital appreciation bonds, series 2025-2026, term 2049. Year, 2055. $35 million capital increase bonds, series 2031-2048. and $17,605,000 of refinancing notes, series 2024-2030. Steifel, Nikolaus & Co.
Colby, Kansas, on Tuesday plans to price the Citizens Medical Center Project Hospital Loan Prospective Revenue Bond Series 2024 at $108,249,000. Colliers Securities.
The City of Seguin, Texas (/AA//) on Wednesday will set a total price of $105,495,000 for the tax and limited pledge revenue obligation certificate, series 2024, serials 2025-2058. RBC Capital Markets.
Shaker Heights City School District, Ohio (/AA//) on Thursday announced $102.66 million in unrestricted tax GO School Facilities Improvement Bonds, series 2024, series 2025-2044, prices for periods 2049, 2054, 2057, and 2061. I plan to set it up.nicolaus & company
Competitiveness
Anne Arundel County, Maryland (Aaa/AAA/AAA/) sells $92.14 million in GO at 11:15 a.m. ET Tuesday and $239.64 million in GO at 10:45 a.m. Tuesday It’s a schedule.
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