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Everything about Michael Penix Jr. feels unconventional and causes controversy. His pitching movement, his extended time in college football, his meteoric rise (and the sudden national prominence that came with it), and the clutch wins he helped take Washington within 60 minutes of winning the national title. It’s difficult to wrap your head around it. .
Days after the best game of his college career, Penix’s name is hotter than ever. In the College Football Playoff semifinal win over Texas, Penix threw for 430 yards and two scores while avoiding the Longhorns’ pass rush, which pressured him on 16 of 39 dropbacks. The performance drew comparisons to CJ Stroud’s career-defining game against Georgia in last year’s CFP semifinals.
Figuring out how to rank the 2024 QB class is as tough a challenge as we’ve seen in recent years. The QB3 spot has been a revolving door all season between Penix, Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy and a few others (some of whom remain in school, like Georgia’s Carson Beck). Penix still has one more data point to add to his resume in Monday’s national title game, but he has seen enough tape to know whether he projects as a top NFL Draft prospect at his position. Already created.
And that’s what we will discuss…
even deeper
No one was more ready for the College Football Playoff than Michael Penix Jr.
Pocket operation
Pro-level pocket management is always the first criteria a quarterback must meet as an NFL draft prospect. Each quarterback’s throwing platform is unique, so he doesn’t have one set way to get things done. I just want to see efficient, balanced movement that allows the QB to access his entire repertoire.
Frankly, Penix is a phenomenal passer and has been since his days at Indiana. That helps his accuracy and timing a lot in some ways, but he pays a price when he gets pressured or loses first looks to the defense.
In the clip above, you can see Penix creating an additional 3-4 yards of space on his dropback, even though he’s using shotgun. This happens consistently on his tape. Oregon has covered this mesh concept for Washington pretty well, but the worry is that Penix will either A) avoid the muddy pocket and find a window to sit in front and throw a route, or B) get a starting point. and arm angle sufficient to accurately throw the ball with the desired drag.
Those concerns will become even more pronounced if Penix has to leave. In this example, Washington State gets edge pressure early and cuts off Penix’s deep dropback, but has plenty of space to step up and reset his legs just as the digging route opens up. Instead, Penix escapes from the pocket but lacks the explosiveness to defeat pass rushers or the footwork and torque to deliver the ball accurately on the move.
For all of Penix’s fireworks this season, his expected points added (EPA) on throws outside the pocket ranks just 48th in the FBS. He also ranked 92nd in success rate, connecting on just 28 of 61 throws.
Penix showed skill in moving the pocket against the interior pressure created by Texas and far outweighed his struggles by getting the ball out of his hands before pressure was applied. He also plays behind the offensive line and doesn’t get much exposure.
But when you talk about the next level, quarterbacks face games where they have to take care of the pressure themselves. Can Penix get the job done against NFL defenses?
Arm talent, ball placement and timing
His throwing motion may be unique, but Penix has clearly spent time making it as efficient as possible. It has to do with how he handles himself in the pocket.
His ball placement performs best on deep throws both between and outside the hash, but his ability as an on-target passer holds up almost anywhere on the field. Washington’s receivers spend most of their time wide open, but Penix can keep the ball away from contested hands when needed. His game is full of throws like the one above, turning a 50/50 ball into a 70/30 chance for him at the receiver.
But in terms of raw arm talent, there is something to be desired. While Penix’s speed meets the necessary benchmarks to perform well at the NFL level, his trajectory is limited and it’s clear he’s not always confident in making passes that require touch. The throw above is probably his best touch pass all year and one of my favorites among QBs this draft cycle, but several times on tape Penix hitches or hesitates on stacked passes. showed a tendency to
When a QB doesn’t have enough pitching tools, it’s imperative that his timing and processing speed outpace his on-field action. That prevents defenses from closing the pitching window.
This is one of the most frustrating examples of Penix failure, limited firing points and arm angles. This is a play-action pass, so the timing of the progression depends on his feet, and it’s up to Penix to diagnose the coverage and make the throw at the top of the drop. But you can see he’s taking a beat to check coverage. As a result, he speeds up and misses the moment to throw a backside dig, giving the under defender time to deny the pass.
Washington is good in pass protection, so Penix has plenty of time to attack the next window of digs with touches. Still, his insistence on a front-side passing concept prevents him from making the right decisions, and his feet aren’t in a position to deliver the ball accurately when he realizes there was a hole from the start. .
In order for Penix to be the best version of himself, he must develop shortcuts as he progresses so that he can reset his legs when needed.
While the Huskies’ scheme does a lot of the heavy lifting in this example, it also shows more of what scouts expect from Penix, especially when the receivers in the middle of the field aren’t as open as his tight ends. . Penix’s feet are connected to his upper body and he throws this sail his route with the same kind of confidence and belief that he shows in his routes that fade.
Penix draft stock prediction
Aside from being left-handed, the nuances of Penix’s game are very reminiscent of Tua Tagovailoa, and Tagovailoa’s play-action-heavy offense would also suit Penix’s strengths. I’m not sure if Penix’s processing speed is fast enough to operate in the pure dropback world, but if coached he has the accuracy and confidence to get the ball where it needs to go.
It’s easy to say QBs in the Shanahan system are set up to perform well, but Penix needs the help this type of offense provides to clear the middle of the field. Outside of that ecosystem, you can compare Penix as a passer to players like Jalen Hurts, who was pretty accurate with his vertical throws during his career.
It’s been a fun experience watching Penix dish out deep passes over the past two years – and there’s a good chance this loaded attack will be enough to win a national title for Washington – but “Game I don’t understand what Cam Newton says about “manager” and “game manager.” When I watch Penix’s games, the words “difference maker” keep popping into my head. In the NFL, he’s more likely to be the former rather than the latter. He should be a top-100 pick, but he won’t surpass Daniels, who is the third-best QB this year. I’m also not willing to bet on the long-term health of a first-round pitcher after several injuries late in the season.
Even compared to Daniels’ Heisman-winning production, Penix had arguably the best year of any QB in college football. But he’s not in the conversation to be a franchise-changing talent in the NFL. That’s totally fine.
(Photo: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
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