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Analysis: Putin extends his rule after unfree and unfair elections. So what happens next?
Diana Magnay International Correspondent
Now that the three-day electoral spectacle – a glorious semblance of democracy backed by unfree, unfair and Soviet-style repression – is over, what next for Vladimir Putin and the country he leads? I wonder?
It is expected that the state will further crack down on what remains of Russia’s weakened civil society.
Putin’s authoritarian course was set long before the invasion of Ukraine, but the erosion of civil liberties has accelerated over the past two years, with the number of people suddenly deemed subversive and imprisoned for minor offenses skyrocketing. are doing. This is far from the kind of repression that Stalin inflicted on his countrymen (millions were sent to concentration camps), but the trajectory is bad.
“Everyone surrounding President Putin is participating in a race of repression,” said Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center. “To be loyal means to devise new repressions, new changes to foreign agent, media, and criminal law laws.”
Even if the elites are inconsistent in this respect, unity and performative loyalty around President Putin has been one of the consistent features of the past two years of uncertainty.
For example, the Communist Party, which polls show as Putin’s biggest threat, declared on Monday that electronic voting is unsafe. Just to be clear, this is not because it is easy for election officials to manipulate the results, but because there is a possibility of “external interference.”
That is the role of the Kremlin-sanctioned “opposition” to support whatever President Putin says. That is why they are welcomed in Congress and on the ballot, willing to take away just 4% of the vote.
Welcome to Russia’s token “opposition”. Remember that the actual opposition is either in prison, in exile, or dead.
President Putin will continue to tell his people the same thing about his country’s place in history and the need for war in Ukraine. Continue to believe that Russia’s nuclear arsenal is big and scary, that Russian society is one big happy family, that the wartime economy is strong, that the future is multipolar, and that we will continue to be at war with the West forever.
Many, perhaps most, Russians will absorb the message because it is so persuasively spoken and pervasive, but there is also a sense of war anxiety, uncertainty, and looking far ahead. There is also a reluctance to make plans for the future.
“Inflation is so high, salaries aren’t going up, we’re poor,” said one Moscow voter. “Companies have left, so there’s less choice in consumer goods and household goods in general, and now we’re just pirating.” Ta. On Sunday, our team briefly outlined the impact of the sanctions, which have been felt, at least in major cities.
“It’s become almost impossible to visit certain countries, family and friends. We’ve really moved backwards and become less civilized.”
Now that President Putin has overcome this electoral hurdle, there is literally no barrier to his calls for further mobilization beyond the blow to his approval ratings. That possibility remains in the back of people’s minds, but Russia’s fortunes in Ukraine would be much worse if Putin took that step, and he would probably decline if he could.
Until Ukraine can obtain the weapons and ammunition it needs to fight back more effectively, President Putin will continue to be buoyed by the confidence he has seen in recent weeks.
“If a year ago Putin was focused on defending ‘our territory’ and even resorting to defensive and sacrificial rhetoric, now he is speaking not on behalf of geopolitical victims, but on behalf of geopolitical victims.” , it sounds like he is triumphant on behalf of a “huge, all-conquering force.” R.Politic’s Tatyana Stanovaya said on Telegram.
“This is explained by the Russian leadership’s growing confidence in Russia’s military superiority in the war with Ukraine, as well as the West’s sense of weakness and disunity.”
Much of this year will depend on events outside Russia: arms deliveries to Ukraine, the future White House incumbent, and whether the West is united.
We must hope that these are outside of Putin’s control, even if Western countries must strengthen their democracies to ensure that they do so.
What is certain is that President Vladimir Putin has unrelenting staying power, and this conclusion was clear both before and now in this “election.”
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