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[8:10 am, 14/03/2024] KS BadriNarayanan: Benchmark indices fell heavily on Wednesday, with Nifty closing 338 points lower while Sensex closing 906 points lower. Among sectors, all major sectoral indices were trading in the red, but realty, metal, media and energy indices fell by more than 5 per cent each.
Technically, selling pressure intensified after the rejection of the 22200/73600 or 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) support level. After a long time, the index closed below the 20-day SMA and also formed a long bearish candle on the daily chart which is largely negative. We believe that the short-term structure of the market has turned bearish, which could push the market towards the 50-day SMA.
For day traders, 22200/73600 would act as the biggest hurdle for the market. Below that the market may slip to 21800-21600-21500/72300-71600-71300. On the other hand, any reversal from the support level could generate a quick pullback rally towards 22000/73000 towards 22100/73300. From a medium to long-term perspective, buying in select stocks is advised between 21800-21600 levels. Any move towards 22000 and 22100 should be used to reduce weak long positions.
Below 46800 levels, Bank-Nifty may fall to 46500-46200 levels, corresponding to 21800/21600 levels. Resistance will be at 47100 and 47300 levels.
[8:16 am, 14/03/2024] KS BadriNarayanan: Very Good Morning!!!
US Markets in detail…Indian & Asian Markets Opening Preview
GIFTNifty: 22,058 (-38) (-0.17%)
Today:
Listing of Equity Shares of Gopal Snacks Limited
124604370 Equity Shares Of Rs.1/- each fully paid up @ 401/-\u0009
Last heard: (-25), IPO px: 401, Est Listing 376 (-6%)… Listing 14/3/24
Listing of Equity Shares of Shree Karni Fabcom Limited (SME IPO)
7072000 equity shares @ 227/-…Lot : 600 shares
Last heard: 30 IPO px: 227, Est Listing 257 (13%) …. Listing 14/3/24
Listing of Equity Shares of KOURA FINE DIAMOND JEWELRY LIMITED
3601500 Equity Shares of Rs.10/- each fully paid up @ 55/- …Market Lot: 2000
Last heard: 60, IPO px: 55, Est Listing 115 (+109%)… Listing 14/3/24
Listing of New Securities of Shankara Building Products Limited
14,00,000 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each issued at a premium of Rs.740/- to Non Promoters on a preferential basis pursuant to conversion of warrants.
Listing of Securities Fredun Pharmaceuticals Limited
19,072 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each issued at a premium of Rs.986.20 to Promoters on a preferential basis pursuant to conversion of warrants .
Listing of New Securities of Alliance Integrated Metaliks Limited
1,55,25,000 equity shares of Re. 1/- each issued at a premium of Rs.39/- to Non Promoters on a preferential basis .
Listing of new securities of Jyoti Structures Ltd
1,34,00,000 equity shares of Rs. 2/- each issued at a premium of Rs.11.20/- to non-promoters on a preferential basis.
Listing of New Securities of Prime Fresh Limited
11,22,819 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each issued at premium of Rs. 210.16/- issued to Non-Promoters on a preferential basis.
Listing of Securities Kernex Microsystems (India) Ltd
6,50,000 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each issued at a premium of Rs.393 to Non Promoters on a preferential basis pursuant to conversion of warrants
IPO’s with gmp’s
Krystal Integrated: 14/3-18/3…Issue Size: 300.13 cr
Last heard: 35, IPO px: 715, Est Listing 750 (+5%)… Listing 21/3/24
Popular Vehicles: 12/3-14/3…Issue Size: 601.55 cr
Last heard: 0, IPO px: 295, Est Listing 295 (%)… Listing 19/3/24
Gopal Snacks: 6/3-11/3…Issue Size: 650 cr
Last heard: (-25), IPO px: 401, Est Listing 376 (-6%)… Listing 14/3/24
Koura Fine Diamond BSE SME : 6/3-11/3…Issue Size: 5.5 cr
Last heard: 60, IPO px: 55, Est Listing 115 (+109%)… Listing 14/3/24
Pune E-Stock Broking BSE SME: 07/03-12/3…Issue Size: 38.23 cr
Last heard: 95, IPO px: 83, Est Listing 178 (+114%)… Listing 15/3/24
Pratham EPC Projects SME: 11/3-13/3…Issue Size: 36 cr
Last heard: 70, IPO px: 75, Est Listing 145 (93%) …. Listing 18/3/24
Shree Karni Fabcom NSE SME: 7/3-12/3…Issue Size: 42.49 cr
Last heard: 30 IPO px: 227, Est Listing 257 (13%) …. Listing 14/3/24
Signoria Creation NSE SME: 12/3-14/3…Issue Size: 9.28 cr
Last heard: 25, IPO px: 65, Est Listing 90 (38%) …. Listing 19/3/24
AVP Infra NSE SME: 13/3-15/3…Issue Size: 52.34 cr
Last heard: 20, IPO px: 75, Est Listing 95 (27%) …. Listing 20/3/24
Enfuse Solutions NSE SME: 15/3-19/3…Issue Size: 22.44 cr
Last heard: 60, IPO px: 96, Est Listing 156 (65%) …. Listing 22/3/24
KPI Green BSE SME: 15/3-19/3… …Issue Size: 189.5 cr
Last heard: 30, IPO px: 144, Est Listing 174 (21%) …. Listing 22/3/24
Provisional Cash Rs. In Crs. (13th Mar)
FIIs -4,595 (33,224 – 37,819)
DIIs +9,094 (20,268 – 11,174)
Sensex: 72,762 (-906) (-1.23%)
Nifty: 21,998 (-338) (-1.51%)
BankNifty: 46,981 (-301) (-0.64%)
NiftyIT: 36,946 (-278) (-0.75%)
MIDCAP 100 : 45,971 (-2,115) (-4.40%)
NSE Auto: 20,338 (-594) (-2.84%)
NSE FMCG: 53,664: +28: +0.05%
Dow: 39,043: +38: +0.10%
S&P: 5,165 (-10) (-0.19%)
Nas: 16,178\u0009 (-88) (-0.54%)
Brazil: 128,006: +338: +0.26%
Ftse: 7,772: +24: +0.31%
Dax: 17,961 (-4) (-0.02%
Cac: 8,138: +50: +0.62%
MOEX: 3,321 (-12) (-0.36%)
WTI Oil: $79.72: +2.78%
Brnt: $83.92: +2.44%
Natural Gas: 1.66 (-3.27%)
Gold: $2180: +15: +0.68%
Gold 22 Carat/g: 6,035 (-39) (-0.64%)
Silver: $25.16: +3.12%
Copper: $406: +13: +3.26%
Cotton: $94.9 (-0.35%)
Copper (LME): $8,657: +4: +0.05%
Alluminum (LME): $2,265: +6: +0.27%
Zinc (LME): $2,561 (-6) (-0.23%)
Tin (LME): $27,520 (-114) (-0.41%)
Eur-$: 1.0950: +0.02%
GBP-$: 1.2799: +0.02%
Jpy-$: 147.66 (-0.07%)
Re: 82.86: +0.1%
USD-RUB: 91.35 (-0.43%)
US10yr: 4.19%: +4 bps
GIND10YR: 7.039: +0.19%
$ Index: 102.788 (-0.16%)
Vix: 13.75 (-0.65%)
India Vix: 14.73: +5.79%
BalticDry: 2,315 (-62) (-2.61%)
ADR/GDR
Cogni (-0.09%)
Infy (-0.10%)
Wi (-2.59%)
IciciBk (-0.31%)
HdfcBk (-0.02%)
DrRdy (-1.32%)
TatSt (-6.06%)
Axis (-2.55%)
SBI (-2.07%)
RIGD (-3.74%)
INDA (-2.41%) (IShares MSCI INDIA ETF)
INDY (-1.71%) (IShares MSCI INDIA 50 ETF)
EPI (-3.39%) (Wisdom Tree India Earning)
PIN (-2.24%) (Invesco India Exchange Traded Fund Trust)
Trade setup for Today in India:
1. Market Outlook:
– The bears are expected to maintain control over Dalal Street in the coming sessions due to nervousness across large-, mid-, and small-caps.
– If the Nifty 50 breaks below the key level of 21,860, it may target support levels at 21,700-21,500. However, a rebound could face resistance at 22,200-22,300.
2. Technical Analysis:
– The Nifty 50 has experienced a breakdown from a rising channel on the daily chart, indicating the potential beginning of a downtrend.
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) with a period of 14 shows a bearish crossover and has dropped below the 50 mark, suggesting susceptibility to selling pressure.
– Support levels are positioned at 21,800 and 21,700, while resistance is anticipated around 22,250.
3. Bank Nifty Outlook:
– The Bank Nifty closed below the 47,000 mark and formed a bearish candlestick pattern with lower highs and lower lows for three consecutive days.
– Resistance is seen at 47,500, while breaching the 20-day moving average (20DMA) may lead to further selling pressure towards the 46,000-45,500 range.
– Support levels are at 46,858, 46,710, and 46,471, while resistance levels are at 47,337, 47,485, and 47,724.
4. Options Data:
– Call open interest is highest at the 22,500 strike, followed by 22,400 and 22,300 strikes, indicating potential resistance levels.
– Put open interest is highest at the 21,700 strike, followed by 21,500 and 21,800 strikes, suggesting key support levels.
– Meaningful Call writing is seen at the 22,300 and 22,400 strikes, while Put writing is observed at the 21,700, 21,600, and 21,500 strikes.
5. Market Participation:
– Stocks with high delivery percentage include ITC, ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company, JK Cement, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, and Hindustan Unilever.
– Long build-up is observed in ITC and Cipla, while long unwinding is seen in 78 stocks and short build-up in 102 stocks.
– Short covering is observed in Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, and Abbott India.
6. PCR and F&O Ban List:
– The Nifty Put Call ratio (PCR) fell sharply to 0.65, indicating a bearish market trend ahead.
– RBL Bank has been added to the F&O ban list for March 14, while Mahanagar Gas has been removed. Other securities remain on the ban list.
Stocks in the news:
1. Gopal Snacks: The company is set to debut on the BSE and NSE on March 14 with a final issue price of Rs 401 per share.
2. Tata Motors: Signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Government of Tamil Nadu to establish a vehicle manufacturing facility in the state.
3. Indian Hume Pipe: The joint venture between Indian Hume Pipe, AMR India (AMRIL), and Shoda Constructions (SCPL) has secured a work order worth Rs 1,137.77 crore for water supply and sewerage projects under AMRUT 2.0 in Telangana. Indian Hume Pipe’s share in the order is 20%, equivalent to Rs 227.55 crore.
4. Federal Bank: Has ceased the issuance of new co-branded credit cards and is rectifying deficient areas. The bank will resume new issuance after seeking regulatory clearance.
5. Cyient: Signed a multi-year services agreement with Airbus for cabin and cargo engineering.
6. IIFL Finance: Received approval from the board of directors to raise up to Rs 1,500 crore through the issue of equity shares to existing eligible shareholders and Rs 500 crore through the issue of non-convertible debentures on a private placement basis.
7. KEC International: Secured new orders worth Rs 2,257 crore across various businesses, including transmission & distribution projects in India and the Americas, as well as the first international order for a pipeline laying project.
A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
1. Consolidation in World Stocks:
– Wednesday saw a day of consolidation and narrow range-trading across world stocks, leaving Asian markets without a clear direction on Thursday.
2. Bank of Japan Policy Meeting:
– Investors are gearing up for next week’s potentially seismic Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy meeting.
– Momentum is building toward the BOJ raising interest rates next Wednesday, which would end eight years of negative interest rate policy and mark the first rate hike in 14 years.
– Toyota Motor’s agreement to give factory workers their biggest pay increase in 25 years heightens expectations for bumper pay raises across the country, providing support for the BOJ to move.
3. Japanese Economic Developments:
– Japanese stocks fell slightly on Wednesday, continuing a trend of profit-taking from last week’s record high. Traders may also be bracing for a BOJ move.
– Progress was made in a tripartite meeting on Wednesday to push for wage hikes across Japan, indicating support for sustainable wage growth.
4. U.S.-China Relations:
– U.S.-China relations faced further tension as the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill giving TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, about six months to divest its U.S. assets or face a ban.
– This is part of a series of moves in Washington to address U.S. national security concerns about China across various sectors.
5. Other Economic Data in Asia:
– Indian wholesale price inflation data is scheduled for release, following marginally hotter-than-expected consumer inflation figures and disappointing industrial production data.
– Investors in Asia also await retail sales data from Indonesia, and industrial production and producer prices from Hong Kong.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:
– India wholesale price inflation (February)
– Indonesia retail sales (February)
– Hong Kong producer price inflation (February)
Overall, the Asian markets are influenced by a mix of domestic economic developments, geopolitical tensions, and anticipation of central bank policy decisions, particularly regarding the Bank of Japan’s potential interest rate hike.
US Futures
– U.S. stock futures edged higher on Wednesday night.
– Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 20 points, S&P 500 futures increased, and Nasdaq 100 futures were up by 0.1%.
– Robinhood’s stock surged by 8% after reporting a 16% increase in assets under custody.
– Fisker’s stock tumbled 46% following reports of hiring restructuring advisors for potential bankruptcy.
– February’s producer price index (PPI) report is awaited, with economists expecting growth of 0.3%.
– This PPI report precedes the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.
– The technology sector experienced a sell-off, with only two of seven major stocks ending higher.
– Concerns surround Apple and Tesla’s performance due to weakened sales in China and lack of AI incentives.
– A bill passed by the House, potentially leading to a TikTok ban, raises broader tech sector concerns.
– Weekly jobless claims report and retail sales data are due before Thursday’s opening bell.
US Markets
1. Market Performance on Wednesday:
– The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed up by 0.1%. It had risen by almost 200 points to a session high of 39,201.94 earlier in the day.
– The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged lower as investors took profits in chipmaker stocks.
– Semiconductor index (SOX) eased 2.5% after recent strong gains, with Nvidia falling 1.1%.
– Intel shares fell 4.4% following news that the Pentagon had pulled out of a plan to spend up to $2.5 billion on a chip grant to the company.
– Dollar Tree slumped 14.2% after announcing store closures and reporting a net loss in the previous quarter.
– McDonald’s shares fell 3.9% after its CFO mentioned a potential sequential decline in international sales for the current quarter.
– Oil rallied after U.S. stockpiles declined for the first time in seven weeks and a Ukrainian drone struck one of Russia’s biggest refineries. U.S. crude inventories shrank 1.54 million barrels last week. While the decline was less than the 5.5 million-barrel drop projected by an industry group, markets still interpreted the report as bullish as it was the first drawdown in almost two months.
– Treasuries stabilized after an auction of 30-year bonds drew strong demand, in marked contrast to Tuesday’s sale of 10-year notes. Bitcoin hit $73,000.
– Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.12 billion shares, compared with the 12 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.
2. Market Sentiment and Factors Driving Movement:
– Investors are booking profits in tech stocks after recent outperformance, but sentiment on AI/data centers remains bullish.
– The market continues to anticipate Nvidia’s global GTC developer conference on AI from March 18-21 for potential announcements.
– Traders are awaiting readings on inflation and retail sales for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
– Despite the recent rally, skepticism has grown among investors.
– There’s a focus on upcoming economic data, including producer price index (PPI) data and retail sales figures.
3. Economic Data and Fed Policy Expectations:
– February U.S. producer price data is due on Thursday, offering further insight into the inflation picture.
– Tuesday’s consumer price data, though slightly hotter than expected, did not dampen hopes of future rate cuts.
– The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) next Wednesday will be closely watched for signals on interest rate changes.
– Inflation data will influence market expectations regarding the timing of any potential interest rate adjustments.
– The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting, but traders see a 65% chance of a rate cut in June.
– The Fed’s dot plot release next Wednesday will provide insight into rate expectations for the rest of the year.
– The current set-up reflects the drivers that have powered stocks higher this year: solid growth, prospects for Fed rate cuts and artificial-intelligence enthusiasm. While the fundamentals are positive, they still don’t justify current valuations — making the market vulnerable to a negative surprise.
– Testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week about rate cuts remaining on the table for 2024, as well as remarks from other Fed officials over the past month, suggest “a lot of consistency” among policy makers on when they will start lowering interest rates.
– In the latest Summary of Economic –Projections, released in December, the median estimate of FOMC members was for three cuts totaling 75 basis points by the end of 2024. The Fed’s updated interest-rate projections are set to be released next Wednesday.
Overall, while the market has seen significant gains recently, there’s a cautious outlook as investors monitor economic indicators and await further guidance from the Federal Reserve.
1. European Markets:
– European markets closed higher following a mixed trading session.
– Investors were digesting the latest U.S. inflation report and U.K. gross domestic product (GDP) figures.
2. U.K. Economic Data:
– U.K. economic data showed a return to moderate growth in January.
– Services output grew by 0.2%, contributing to the overall gains.
– There was also a bounce in construction output, which further supported the positive sentiment in the market.
Overall, the European markets experienced a day of mixed trading, with investors closely monitoring economic data releases and adjusting their positions accordingly.
Companies in Focus
1. Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR):
– DLTR shares ended 14.2% lower after missing fiscal fourth-quarter profit expectations and providing a downbeat outlook.
– The company plans to close approximately 1,000 Family Dollar stores as part of its efforts to improve profitability amid various challenges.
2. Petco Health & Wellness Co. Inc. (WOOF):
– WOOF stock finished down over 1% after reporting another quarterly loss, despite better-than-expected sales for its fiscal fourth quarter. Petco operates pet-care centers and mobile veterinary clinics.
3. Tesla Inc. (TSLA):
– TSLA shares closed 4.5% lower following a downgrade from Wells Fargo to the equivalent of sell from hold.
– Wells Fargo also lowered its price target significantly, citing a drop of almost 38% to $125 a share.
4. Intel Corp.:
– The Pentagon withdrew from a plan to spend up to $2.5 billion on a chip grant to Intel Corp., shifting the responsibility to another federal agency, the Commerce Department.
5. Eli Lilly & Co.:
– Eli Lilly is partnering with Amazon.com Inc. to expand its business of selling weight-loss drugs directly to patients.
6. Adidas AG:
– Adidas is maintaining its underwhelming earnings forecast for the year due to high inventories of unsold sneakers and apparel in North America, disappointing investors who were expecting an improved outlook.
7. BP Plc and United Arab Emirates’ state oil firm:
– BP and the UAE’s state oil firm suspended a $2 billion bid to buy a major stake in Israel’s NewMed Energy due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, which is disrupting politics across the region.
Key events this week:
•US PPI, retail sales, initial jobless claims, business inventories, Thursday
•China property prices, Friday
•Japan’s largest union federation announces results of annual wage negotiations, just ahead of Bank of Japan policy meeting, Friday
•Bank of England issues inflation survey, Friday
•US industrial production, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Empire Manufacturing, Friday
Currencies
•The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
•The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0948
•The British pound was little changed at $1.2797
•The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 147.83 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
•Bitcoin rose 3.3% to $73,381.38
•Ether rose 1.3% to $4,003.15
Bonds
•The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.19%
•Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.37%
•Britain’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 4.02%
Commodities
•West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.8% to $79.73 a barrel
•Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,173.03 an ounce
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