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Most on Wall Street expect inflation to ease, but an overshoot could dash hopes for a rate cut in May and keep S&P 500 stocks in check.
Some people warn of waltzing with 5,000 people.
Still, using Nvidia NVDA
Another 47% increase so far this year, AI drives companies like ARM ARM crazy,
And others approaching it would be wise not to get in front of the ChatGPT train for now. In fact, Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey shows that tech stocks continue to be bought.
read: Arm’s stock continues to rise enthusiastically as AI tracking outperforms valuation.
What could ultimately disrupt this market? Our today’s call Russell Clarke, a former hedge fund manager, points to the island nation of Japan as one of the last countries whose central bank has sustained monetary easing.
Notably, Clark bailed out with the Permabear RC Global Fund in 2021 after betting incorrectly on stocks for more than a decade. But he has a whole theory about why Japan is so important.
In his Substack post, Clark argues that the real trigger for a bear market will come when the Bank of Japan ends quantitative easing. First of all, we are in a “pro-worker world,” he argues, and several things should happen, including higher wages, lower unemployment, and higher-than-expected interest rates. Consistent with his prediction, real assets began to surge in late 2023, when the Fed began to become dovish, and the yield curve began to steepen.
From that point on, not everything aligns so easily. He thought rising short-term interest rates would suck money out of speculative assets, but then money flowed into cryptocurrencies like Tether, and the Nasdaq fully recovered from the 2022 crash.
“I have always held the view that semiconductors are the new oil and therefore have become a strategic asset. This explains to some extent the sharp rise in the Nasdaq and Nikkei stock averages, but not so much for Tether and Bitcoin. “I can’t explain it well,” he said.
Now, back to Japan and his less popular explanation for why financial/speculative assets continue to trade so well.
“The Fed kept interest rates high throughout the 1990s, and the dot-com bubble developed anyway. But during that time, the Bank of Japan finally raised interest rates in 1999, and then the bubble burst,” he said.
He noted that once Japan started raising interest rates at the end of 2006, “everything started to ease,” adding that the Bank of Japan’s short-term attempts were ineffective. [to] The 1996 interest rate hike may have been the cause of the Asian financial crisis.
In Clark’s view, the market seems to be moving more in line with Japanese banks’ balance sheets than the Fed’s. He points out that the BOJ “invented” quantitative easing in the early 2000s and removed liquidity from the market in 2006, shortly after which the subprime crisis began.
“For really old investors, Japan’s monetary easing policy also explains the bubble economy of the 1980s. In my book, there is a decent correlation between the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet and the S&P 500,” he says. , presented the graph below.
Capital Flows and Asset Markets, Russell Clarke.
Clark says this also helps explain why rising bond yields aren’t doing real damage to assets. “As yields on 10 Japanese government bonds rise, the Bank of Japan has committed to unlimited purchases to keep interest rates below 1%,” he said.
What are the two big points here? “The only central bank that matters is the Bank of Japan, and if the Bank of Japan were to raise rates, it would have to be bearish on the US. Given bond market movements and food inflation. It’s just a matter of time,” Clark said, adding that given the new fund’s plans, “a bear market is very beneficial to me.” He is keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan.
market
Pre-data, stock futures ES00
NQ00
While government bond yields are declining,
Be strong. oil CL
and gold GC00
Both are expensive.Nikkei 225 Index
This is the first time since 1990 that the number has exceeded 38,000.
Key asset performance |
last |
5d |
1m |
YTD |
1 year old |
S&P500 |
5,021.84 |
1.60% |
4.98% |
5.28% |
21.38% |
Nasdaq Composite |
15,942.55 |
2.21% |
6.48% |
6.20% |
34.06% |
10 year treasury |
4.181 |
7.83 |
11.45 |
30.03 |
42.81 |
Money |
2,038.10 |
-0.17% |
-0.75% |
-1.63% |
9.33% |
oil |
77.14 |
5.96% |
6.02% |
8.15% |
-2.55% |
Data: MarketWatch.Changes in government bond yields expressed in basis points |
buzz
The headline consumer price index for January, which will be released at 8:30 a.m., is expected to fall to 2.9%, down from 3.4% in December and the lowest level since March 2021. Monthly inflation is expected to be 0.3%.
Biogen BIIB
The company’s stock price has fallen due to disappointing financial results and a delay in the launch of its Alzheimer’s disease drug.Mistake also hits Krispy Kreme DNUT,
coca cola KO
Hasbro HAS drives revenue,
Molson Coors TAP
and Marriott MAR
Airbnb ABNB will follow in the future,
Akamai AKAM
and MGM Resorts MGM
After closing. Hasbro stock is plummeting due to poor profits.
jet blue JBLU
The company comes after billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn revealed he owns a nearly 10% stake and said his company was discussing possible board representation. So, stock prices are rising rapidly.
tripadvisor stocktrip
rose 10% after the travel services platform announced it was considering a possible sale.
For the first time, Russia has placed an Estonian prime minister on its “wanted” list. Meanwhile, the US Senate approved aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
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