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- Joe Biden has threatened Russia with serious consequences if dissident Alexei Navalny dies.
- But the options available to the United States appear to be limited.
- Russia has already imposed most of the sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.
When President Joe Biden addressed the sudden death of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny last week, he left no doubt as to who was responsible.
“What happened to Mr. Navalny is further proof of Mr. Putin’s brutality. No one should be fooled,” Biden told reporters on Friday.
But what Biden was unsure about was how the Russian president should pay for his alleged crimes.
Russia’s Prison Service announced on Friday that Navalny had died suddenly in prison. According to the Kremlin, the dissident felt unwell after the walk and quickly lost consciousness.
At the press conference, Biden was asked about his 2021 statement that Russia would suffer “catastrophic” consequences if Navalny died in custody.
Biden said most of the sanctions available to the United States were used in response to Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, but that the United States was “considering” what else it could do.
When asked by a New York Times reporter on the sidelines of this weekend’s Munich Security Conference what more the United States could do to punish Russia over Navalny’s death, a senior U.S. official simply shrugged. .
US sanctions cannot weaken Russia
The United States has already imposed sweeping sanctions on President Putin, his inner circle, and the Russian economy over the invasion of Ukraine.
However, Russia has managed to avoid some of the worst effects of sanctions.
For example, the United States is trying to cut off Russian exports of oil and gas, a trade that is central to Russia’s economy. But Russia is increasing oil exports to other countries to make up for oil shortages in Western countries, including India and China.
The United States is also trying to block Russia from obtaining high-tech parts used to make cruise missiles and other weapons. However, illegal trade in parts broke out, with parts being imported through neighboring states and a network of shell companies.
Putin has put Russia’s economy on a war footing, spending 6% of GDP on arms and ammunition production, meaning US attempts to sharply limit Russian arms production have failed. Russia is currently ramping up production of ammunition as Ukraine’s supplies run short.
Biden on Friday pointed to the impact of the invasion of Ukraine on Russia, saying the country has already suffered “so many consequences” since making his 2021 pledge.
For Ukraine, Western weapons proved essential to reversing Russia’s success in the early weeks of the conflict.
But that could change soon. Congressional Republicans, egged on by President Donald Trump, are opposing a new bill that includes $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, threatening the future of U.S. aid to the country.
The prospect of further sanctions
Although the impact is limited, are further sanctions the answer?
The US Treasury said Russia’s economy has shrunk by 5% since the invasion of Ukraine and suffers from lack of investment, slow productivity growth and labor shortages.
The decision to redirect the economy towards arms and ammunition production led to a “long-term decline in living standards,” the report said.
Additional sanctions targeting banks and other institutions that help Russia evade the trade ban have reportedly led some Chinese companies to distance themselves from Russia. This is important because China was Russia’s economic lifeline during the war.
And if the United States and other Western powers choose to further punish Russia, options remain.
Some European leaders want the United States to hand over $300 billion in frozen assets from the Russian central bank to Ukraine, a plan reportedly supported by some in the Biden administration.
But concerns remain about the legality of the move and its potential to lead to the collapse of global financial networks.
Elizabeth Breaux, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the Observer that one remaining option would be to impose sanctions on the children of Kremlin elites who still live in luxury in the West. Told.
“Everyone loves their children more than anything,” she said. “It would be a huge shock for the Russian authorities to see their children lose a prosperous life in the West.”
But the new measures open to Western countries feel incremental and will provide little deterrent to Putin as he seeks to instill fear in his domestic critics as Russia’s presidential elections approach.
British security expert Edward Lucas told Times Radio that Navanry’s death was “a deliberate show of disrespect for the West and shows that Putin doesn’t care about our sanctions or disapproval”. It shows,” he said.
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