The World in 2024 | Strategist

At my previous job at the U.S. State Department, colleagues often asked me what might happen in this or that situation. In many cases, there was no way to know, so I reminded the questioner that I was in charge of policy making, not forecasting. That said, forecasting can be a useful intellectual exercise in the new year.

The US presidential election in November is almost certain to be the most important event of 2024. Of course, given America’s power and influence, American elections are always important. But what is fundamentally different about this election is that it is likely to be an election in which the differences between the major party candidates far outweigh the similarities. Assuming President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump win their respective parties’ nominations, who wins will be of great importance to the United States and the world.

Certainly, there are some similarities between Biden and Trump. Trump, unlike Biden, is an outspoken protectionist, but neither believes in free trade. Both support expanding the role of government in the economy. Both wanted to get out of Afghanistan. The two leaders also agree on the need to take a tough stance toward China, especially when it comes to trade and investment in critical technology.

But the difference is much greater. Biden is a career politician who believes in democracy, embraces its norms, and is prepared to work across party lines to create compromises that benefit the country. Trump is an outsider, fiercely partisan, rejects political norms (such as admitting election loss), and often puts himself above the country’s democracy.

Mr. Biden’s foreign policy approach centers on America’s allies, which he views as a major source of comparative advantage over the United States. Mr. Trump views allies as economic competitors and drains of U.S. finances. Biden characterized this period in history as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship, and argued that the United States needed to support its democratic friends around the world, whereas Trump was far more friendly to dictators and sought to control their politics. He seems to be jealous. The list of issues on which the two sides differ greatly is long and includes climate change, immigration policy, and access to abortion, to name a few.

As of this writing, Trump should be considered the front-runner. His politics and persona are more suited to this age of populism. The perception that Mr. Biden is too old, inflation and an unpopular influx of immigrants are also weighing on him. The biggest question surrounding President Trump is the extent to which his legal problems will turn into political ones.

But Americans don’t just vote for president. Their votes will also determine whether parliament will be controlled by the same party. Currently, Democrats control the Senate, but Republicans have a majority in the House of Representatives. The opposite is likely to happen from November onwards.

If Trump wins, unless the Supreme Court takes a more ideologically conservative stance, Democrats could control the House of Representatives, the most significant limit to Trump’s power at the federal level. There is a possibility that it will happen. If Biden wins, Republicans will have a majority in the Senate, which could make governance very difficult.

Dozens of elections are scheduled in 2024 outside the United States and around the world. The first major election will be held in Taiwan on his January 13th. Opinion polls predict a close race, with William Lai, the presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, holding a slight lead in the three-way race. But most importantly, none of the candidates seem willing to do something as reckless as a declaration of independence. Still, if Mr. Lai becomes Taiwan’s next president, China is likely to respond by increasing its military, economic, and political coercion over Taiwan.

Presidential elections will be held in Russia in two months. There may be no easier prediction than that Vladimir Putin will win another term.

Another simple prediction is that Mexico’s next president will be a woman after voters go to the polls in June. The two main candidates are women, lean to the left, and are running on platforms that inherit many of the policies of outgoing President Andres Manuel López Obrador.

The next 12 months will be defined in no small part by the war between Russia and Ukraine. The third year of civil war is unlikely to be decisive. Neither side can impose its will on the battlefield and neither side is willing to negotiate.

Ukraine is not prepared to accept anything less than a complete restoration of its 1991 borders. But as Western military support dwindles, it may be forced to adopt a more defensive strategy. President Putin seems confident that over time, the resolve of Western supporters of Ukraine will weaken. In particular, President Putin is waiting to see if President Trump wins, in which case, and with good reason, U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine will be sharply reduced, if not completely stopped. Expect.

Then there is the war between Israel and Hamas, now in its third month. At some point, the intensity of the war will diminish somewhat, giving way to Israel’s occupation of Gaza, punctuated by periodic violence.

What happens in Gaza and the occupied West Bank will largely be determined by Israeli elections, which will almost certainly be held this year. If a government like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power, the outlook for diplomacy will be bleak. But while the election of a more centrist government would create diplomatic possibilities for the US and its Arab states, any diplomatic prospects could be jeopardized if the war spreads to Lebanon or Iran. There is sex.

When it comes to China and US-China relations, 2024 is unlikely to be a year of dramatic change. Chinese authorities are largely focused on the economy and do not want a confrontation with the United States that could lead to further export restrictions or investment restrictions. Like Russia, China will be watching US politics, but many in China are not convinced that President Trump’s victory will necessarily be in China’s interests.

The biggest event after the US presidential election is likely to be the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), to be held in Azerbaijan in November. It is equally likely that this gathering will not result in meaningfully stemming the crisis.

Last but not least, Argentina’s new president campaigned on a platform of fundamental change. History has shown that when outsiders become insiders, reality often tempers their behavior. Of course, Trump offers evidence that this is not necessarily the case. These wrinkles are one of the reasons why these predictions are so difficult.