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The S&P 500 index ended the year near record highs, as did France’s Cac-40 index and Germany’s DAX. Inflation began to fall sharply across the developed world, and bond yields began to fall as well.
The American economy remained strong, and although Europe remained flat, a complete recession was avoided. China’s real estate values fell slightly, but not enough to collapse. And despite several regional bankruptcies in the United States and the dramatic merger of bankrupt Credit Suisse and UBS, by the end of the year, cash machines were still operating and full-scale bank failures were on the horizon. There was almost no sign of it.
At the beginning of this year, the global economy appeared to be in a precarious position, facing multiple threats across different continents. However, by the time the deal closed, it was mostly stable. This year has been a year of close shaves and lucky escapes. However, no catastrophe occurred.
But here’s the problem. Stability rarely lasts forever, and no one’s luck lasts forever. Just because central banks and policymakers have managed to get through the past 12 months without major disasters doesn’t mean next year will be so benign.
There are still many threats to the global economy, some of which remain and others that are entirely new. like? Here are 10 major events that could derail global prosperity in 2024.
1) Donald Trump wins (or loses) the presidency
He could have been chaotic, aggressive, and unappealing. Still, Trump Mark I was able to rack up some important accomplishments during his presidential term. He lowered the ridiculously uncompetitive corporate tax rate and brought the US in line with the rest of the world. He cut red tape and launched investment zones. And he began trying to protect the economy from China without absurd subsidies from his successor.
The problem is, the Trump Mark II is nothing like that. His main economic pledge is to impose a 10% tariff on all imports, a policy that would plunge the world into a 1930s-style recession (as the United States is its largest trading partner) Alarmingly, the UK is probably the worst affected).
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