Tongan attitude towards the world

Geopolitical competition is intensifying in the Pacific. How do Tongans feel about it?

In 2023, Tonga’s Tupou Tertiary Institute (TTI) conducted a survey of more than 1,000 Tongans to better understand Tongan attitudes towards the world. The survey is modeled on the annual Lowy Institute poll and is funded by the Australian Government. This result indicates that geopolitical competition and the pursuit of influence are relevant for Tongans.

Tonga is at the center of increased strategic attention. Both Australia and New Zealand are stepping up their efforts to remain key development and security partners in the field of competitive development.

Tongans are concerned about outside influence on the political process, with nearly 90% concerned about Chinese influence.

Tonga switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1998, and in return received large loans from China to fund infrastructure projects, but now faces large debt repayments. The United States is also vying to curry favor with the Tongans and balance Chinese influence. A new U.S. embassy opened in Tonga in May 2023, and President Joe Biden announced increased aid in September. Britain has resumed its diplomatic mission, and Japan is also increasing its involvement.

That’s a lot of pressure for a small country. With so much attention, who do Tongans trust? Enduring and historic relationships appear to be influential, with New Zealand ranking first, followed by Australia, the US and the UK. Interlocutors from recent or distant regions – Russia, India, China – are less trusted.

Tongans are concerned about outside influence on the political process, with nearly 90% concerned about Chinese influence. Fewer Tongans are concerned about the influence of the United States (70%) and Australia (65%), but they are still large. As elsewhere in the region, there is a perception that sovereignty is at risk as geopolitics intensifies.

Beyond political divisions, issues affecting security are being felt acutely. Six out of 10 people reported feeling “unsafe” or “very unsafe.” The alarming issue mirrors concerns elsewhere in the region. During the poll, COVID-19 (79%) remained the most significant threat to safety. Health security has long been a key issue in the Pacific region. In addition to infectious diseases such as the coronavirus and measles, there are other killers lurking. In Tonga and other parts of the Pacific region, non-communicable diseases such as heart disease and diabetes are the leading causes of death.

Surprisingly, although terrorism and conflict can affect Tonga through supply chain disruptions and inflation, around three-quarters of Tongans report that even though there is no domestic terrorist threat, Terrorism was also determined to be a major concern.

Climate change and U.S.-China military conflict were judged to be equal threats to the security of Tongans, with three-quarters of those surveyed concerned. That is a common view across the region.

Given the international attention focused on Pacific security agreements and agreements, how do Tongans perceive international security and defense policy?

The results are mixed and depend on the partner country.Slightly more than half of Tongans believe military partnerships with New Zealand, Australia and the United States will lead to development for Tonga and the region. more safety.Roughly the same number of people believe their country will few As long as we have a military alliance with China, we will be safe.

Opinions about Australia’s AUKUS policy are divided into two. Around a third of Tongans believe Australia’s acquisition of nuclear submarines will make the region safer. Just over a quarter say the area is less safe. The legacy of nuclear testing in the Pacific Islands region may contribute to negative sentiment toward these nuclear submarines.

Climate change and U.S.-China military conflict were judged to be equal threats to the security of Tongans, with three-quarters of those surveyed concerned.

Just two years ago, a poll asked Tongans’ views on allowing foreign troops to base in Tonga, following the international reaction to the news that China might set up a military base in the Solomon Islands. . A slight majority (42%) say they are “strongly in favor” of allowing the US to establish a military base in Tonga, compared to 39% of Australians and 35% of the UK. In stark contrast, more than half of Tongans said they were “strongly opposed” to China locating a military base in Tonga.

Looking to the future, an astonishing 80% think it is “likely” or “very likely” that China will pose a military threat to Tonga over the next 20 years. And now, despite China being ranked as Tonga’s “second best friend in the world”, a quarter of Tongans see China as a security threat rather than an economic partner (New Zealand followed by Australia and the United States in third and fourth place). . This “best friend” view may be due to Tongans’ perception of which country their government is closest to.

Beyond security and defence, Tongans were consulted on aid and foreign policy.

An overwhelming majority view budget support as “fairly good” for Tonga, with budget priorities evenly divided between long-term economic development (21%), education (20%) and health (17%). Disaster relief and climate change followed closely (14 percent and 13 percent, respectively). Despite the intensifying competition for influence through infrastructure investment, the infrastructure sector received 7% support.

A majority vote on Tonga’s foreign policy priorities, with more than a third requiring a focus on “cooperation with traditional partners (Australia, New Zealand) and Western countries, including the United States and the European Union” I felt sexual. Next, 22% expressed interest in reducing the national debt, indicating public awareness of Tonga’s huge debt, mainly to China.

What’s the best news for Canberra and Wellington?

Tongans have very “warm” feelings towards these two development partners. Both countries score 95 degrees Celsius on the region’s ‘feeling thermometer’ of countries, just 2 degrees Celsius higher than Fiji and 45 degrees Celsius higher than Samoa. Although Samoa is a close relative in the region, it is a country with a history of both friendly and competitive relations.

Ultimately, focusing on development cooperation rather than security agreements will only add to that very warm feeling. And given that Tongans have strong concerns about the threat of a pandemic, one good place to collaborate seems to be Tonga’s health system.