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Saturday’s general election in Taiwan will have a major impact not only on Taiwan’s 23 million people but also on the superpower rivalry between China and the United States.
Voters chose current vice president Kiyonori Lai as the next president, vowing to continue the party’s policy of protecting the island’s sovereignty. The vote is a rebuke of China’s claims to Taiwan and the increasing pressure it is exerting on Taiwan’s democracy.
As in all major Taiwanese elections, how to deal with China was central to the campaign. The issue has taken on added urgency as Beijing ramps up military activity near Taiwan, raising concerns about a future conflict that could affect the United States.
What is the controversy over Taiwan’s status?
The island’s status and future have been debated since 1949, when Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang government fled mainland China for Taiwan after being defeated by Mao Zedong’s communist forces in a civil war.
In Taiwan, President Chiang Kai-shek and the Nationalist Party imposed martial law on the island for decades while harboring dreams of reconquering the mainland. Formally known as the Republic of China, Taiwan lost its membership in the United Nations in 1971 when the People’s Republic of China took over as UN seat.
Democratization in the 1990s paved the way for the emergence of a Taiwanese identity separate from the Chinese identity imposed on Taiwan by the Kuomintang.
Roughly 130 miles off the coast of China, Taiwan is functionally independent, with its own constitution, military, democratically elected representatives, currency, and customs system. Its citizens hold green passports and are accepted by immigration authorities in many countries. China is now seen as a leader in human rights in Asia, in sharp contrast to authoritarian China.
Only a handful of countries officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation, although many countries treat Taiwan as a near-sovereign nation.
What is China’s position?
China’s ruling Communist Party continues to claim sovereignty over Taiwan, even though it has never ruled the island. The Chinese government refers to the island as the “Taiwan region” and says any questions regarding its future are purely a Chinese matter.that It demands that all countries accept the “one China” principle, which states that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory.
The Chinese government has increased its assertiveness against Taiwan on the international stage by blocking Taiwan’s attempts to join international organizations such as the World Health Organization. When Taiwan participates in the Olympics, it is called “Chinese Taipei.”
Chinese leader Xi Jinping said his country would continue to seek “peaceful reunification” but reserved the right to use force if China deems it necessary.
Chinese jets and warships regularly conduct training near Taiwan, encroaching on the unofficial border between mainland China and the island at the midpoint of the Taiwan Strait, but until now Chinese military This line was rarely crossed.
Although few analysts believe a Chinese invasion is imminent, Beijing has a variety of tools to exert influence in addition to military threats.
What is the US position on Taiwan?
The United States is Taiwan’s most important supporter of security, and Taiwan has been a flashpoint between the United States and China since the early days of the Cold War.
Two crises in the 1950s nearly led to military conflict between China and the United States, and the U.S. government supported Chiang Kai-shek’s government in Taiwan for decades.
When the United States recognized communist-ruled China in 1979, it adopted a deliberately vague “One China” policy. In other words, it acknowledged but did not support the Chinese government’s position that Taiwan is included in its territory.
In the decades since then, the United States has maintained ties with Taiwan, including through arms sales, and periodic tensions over the island have not derailed economic ties between the two countries.
Why is Taiwan a geopolitical flashpoint?
Asked on Saturday to react to Taiwan’s election of Lai as president, President Biden reiterated the United States’ longstanding position that it does not support Taiwan’s independence, a comment seen as aimed at reassuring China.
But he has previously said he would defend the democratic island militarily if it were invaded by China, a comment that added to “strategic ambiguity” about how he would respond if China invaded. This is a departure from official US policy.
The Taiwan issue has flared up again and again, especially in recent years as relations between the United States and China have become strained.
In 2022, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi infuriated China with a trip to Taipei, and Lai, now Taiwan’s vice president, came under scrutiny for his visit to the United States last year. Chinese warplanes tested Taiwan’s defenses, and American warships defied Chinese pressure in the Taiwan Strait.
Who will be the next president of Taiwan?
Lai is a member of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which has long rejected the Chinese government’s demands for unification. His main rivals were members of the opposition Kuomintang Party, who vowed to expand trade ties and restart negotiations with China.
Lai, now the next president, has vowed to continue President Tsai Ing-wen’s approach. The idea is to avoid conflict, maintain distance from Beijing, and strengthen ties with the United States and other democracies.
“We are telling the international community that we stand on the side of democracy between democracy and authoritarianism,” Lai said in his victory speech on Saturday, pledging to protect Taiwan’s identity.
But when Lai takes office in May for a four-year term, he will face difficult questions about how to handle relations between Taiwan and China. Lai said dialogue with Beijing is possible if Taiwan is treated with “equal respect.”
Opinion polls show that most Taiwanese support maintaining the island’s vague status quo rather than pursuing full independence, risking possible retaliation by Beijing.
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