World Economic Forum report ranks ‘extreme weather’ as top risk

According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), the world is “plagued” by twin dangerous crises: climate and conflict. annual meeting, Starting Monday in Davos.

“Underlying geopolitical tensions, coupled with outbreaks of active hostilities in multiple regions, are contributing to an unstable world order characterized by polarizing narratives, erosion of trust and insecurity. ” said Saadia Zahidi, WEF’s direct manager, in the Forum’s Global Risk Report 2024.

Between September and October last year, 1,490 experts from academia, business, government, international society and civil society were asked for their risk insights.

Deadly conflicts from Sudan to Gaza to Israel. Record-breaking heat and social dissatisfaction became priority risks.

Two-thirds of respondents cited “extreme weather” as the risk most likely to result in a major global crisis this year.

Misinformation and disinformation will emerge as a major threat over the next two years, becoming the second biggest threat in 2024, and is expected to “further widen social and political divisions.”

“Nearly 3 billion people are expected to vote in elections in several countries over the next two years, including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, the UK and the US, and misinformation and information will be widespread. “Disinformation and the tools used to spread it can undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments,” the report said.

“The resulting insecurity could range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil war and terrorism.”

Social polarization is among the top three risks in both the current and two-year timeframes, and is closely associated with economic downturn.

The cost of living crisis remains a major concern in the 2024 outlook.

“High turnover rates, including both job creation and job destruction, can lead to deep polarization of labor markets between developed and developing countries, and between developed and developing countries,” the report says. Pointed out.

Meanwhile, a report has been issued warning that armed conflict between states is a “contagion of conflict”.

Reducing energy demand

Meanwhile, the WEF is calling on businesses and countries to take steps to reduce energy demand to reduce carbon emissions and save cash.

The forum called for reducing what it called “energy intensity,” the amount of energy used per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). new report It was also released the night before Annual meeting.

Modeling shows that certain actions could reduce energy intensity by 31% and save up to $2 trillion annually.

According to the report, “This is a compelling case for addressing energy demand as well as supply on the path to net zero, as measures with attractive returns can be implemented today using existing technologies.” “This is considered to be evidence that there is some basis for this.”

Learn about three “levers” for reducing energy usage. The first is “energy saving”. This is basically due to business improvement interventions.

The second is “energy saving” measures that involve capital investment.

The final option is value chain collaboration, where companies work directly with suppliers and business partners to reduce costs.

The WEF is calling on sectors to develop “roadmaps” to guide the actions of businesses and governments.

“Business and national energy transition plans are needed to take advantage of managing energy consumption while integrating supply-side actions. Businesses across all sectors of energy demand and supply should work with governments to develop these plans. We need to develop strategies and raise awareness of the routes and outcomes available to address barriers to action.”

Examples of energy savings include the digital optimization of plant operations and the automation and electrification of transport in mining and extractive industries, which use around 8% of the world’s energy.

The majority of energy use in mining (approximately 93%) is used for mining, movement within the mine, and fracturing, all of which are focused on equipment.

“Autonomous truck networks have the potential to save 15 to 20 percent of transportation energy demand through optimization of routes, operating times, and throttle inputs,” according to the report.

Tension between security and sustainability

“The energy transition has created immense and growing tensions between the imperatives of security, affordability and sustainability,” the report said.

“In terms of energy security, the first challenge is to transform today’s hydrocarbon-based supply while simultaneously maintaining a secure and stable energy supply in an increasingly volatile geopolitical context.” he added.

In 2021-2022, due to energy shortages as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European governments sourced oil and gas from flows normally destined for other emerging markets and developing countries (EMDEs). These countries had to use more coal and face rising energy prices.

The second challenge is affordability. In particular, the population is expected to increase by 2 billion people and GDP is expected to double by 2050.

“This will increase pressure on energy supply systems, particularly in EMDEs, which account for around 60% of current demand. We need clear routes to economic growth,” the report says.

The third challenge is the sustainability of meeting this increased energy demand in a way that keeps the world on track to achieve the 2050 Paris Agreement. Most scenarios predict a significant shortage of clean energy supply by 2050, so more efficient energy use is essential.

“Rebuilding trust”

More than 2,800 leaders will gather in Davos under the theme “Rebuilding Trust,” focusing on achieving security and cooperation. Growth and job creation, artificial intelligence and “long-term climate, nature and energy strategies”

Image credit: WEF.